Ohio’s May outlook: Warmer but increasingly stormy

It is almost official, April will NOT go down as the coldest on record, but it was pretty darn close.

The record was 45.0 degrees set in 1950.

As of this past weekend, the current average temperature for this April in Dayton had climbed to 45.7 degrees. That is a jump of nearly 2 degrees in just the last week thanks to the warm-up that had gotten underway late last week.

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While the final statistics are not in as of this writing, it appears most likely this April will still go down as one of the top 5 coldest since records were kept starting in 1893.

But while this week did start out with some patchy frost, it appears we have finally turned the corner to more steady, normal or even above-normal temperatures. It also appears likely we are done with any significant freezing temperatures for the season, and we may escape from anymore frost.

Usually most garden experts say to wait until after May 10-15 before doing any significant planting, and that is certainly a good rule of thumb. However, the long-range forecasts that go out 10 to 15 days show overnight low temperatures staying above 40 degrees through mid-May, the entire forecast range.

Indeed, it appears warmer weather has finally arrived.

Interestingly, the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for this spring has been for above-normal temperatures and near or above-normal precipitation.

We have certainly had our fair share of rainfall (and even snow) in April, but we’ve struggled to get anywhere near the CPC’s forecasted temperatures. However, it appears that may change beginning this week.

The latest 30-day outlook for the month of May maintains temperatures will likely stay near or above normal. The normal high is now in the upper 60s as we start May, but quickly climbs into the lower 70s by May 10. So, look for high temperatures to stay near or above 70 through the rest of the month.

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It also appears enough of the La Nina-type pattern we’ve had since early winter will maintain itself into at least much of this month, although it is weakening.

This will likely continue to push precipitation to stay above average through the month if not through the rest of spring. This may be bad news for farmers trying to get crops into their fields.

It is also important to note that with increasing temperatures and an active storm track, the threat for strong to severe storms will also likely increase. Of course, May and June are typically the most active months for severe storms in Ohio.

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Despite the cold April, Ohio has already had more tornadoes (9) than is typical through this time of year. The state averages around 19 tornadoes a year, and we are already off to a quick start. If the current weather forecast holds, we could have a threat for strong storms later this week.

Whatever happens in the weeks again, I’m sure many of you are like me, and are glad to move past one of the coldest Aprils on record.

Enjoy the warmth ahead and just be on the lookout for the spring storms!

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