Since the end of April, the weather pattern across North America has been in a blocking pattern. This means that weather patterns and storm systems have been very slow to move from place to place. I talked about the pattern known as an “Omega Block” last week. This is the same pattern that brought record warmth and dry weather well northward into Canada setting the stage for massive wildfires like the one near Fort McMurray in Alberta.
That pattern did relax late last week allowing for the weather pattern to return to more seasonable weather over the weekend. But now it appears the pattern may shift into another block over the next week.
What this means for us will be more active weather returning with soaking rains possible over the next few days. There will also be some potential for severe weather through midweek, although the greater threat for severe weather will remain just to our west across the Plains and Midwest.
A frontal boundary which crossed Ohio over the weekend will pivot back and forth across Ohio through Thursday before a cold front finally sweeps across the state to end the week. Upper-level weather disturbances will move along the front occasionally increasing showers and storms across the Miami Valley. The latest computer model projections estimate up to 2 inches of rain could fall across much of the state by Friday.
A brief break in the wet weather is anticipated Friday before the pattern shifts back to more unsettled and cooler weather as we head into the coming weekend. If you are looking for a major warm-up that stays more than a few days- then you’ll have to wait at least another 10 days before the blocking pattern begins to break down, allowing warmer air to shift – and stay in the Ohio Valley.
Eric Elwell is WHIO StormCenter 7 Chief Meteorologist. Contact him at eric.elwell@coxinc.com or follow him on Facebook and Twitter.
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