Bracket Watch: Miami (Ohio) joins the bubble but still has a lot going for it -- for now

Miami (Ohio) went 31-0 in the regular season, then lost in the Mid-American Conference Tournament
Miami (Ohio) forward Antwone Woolfolk (13) was off the court after Miami (Ohio) was defeated by Massachusetts in a basketball game in the quarterfinals of the Mid-American Conference tournament, Thursday, March 12, 2026, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

Credit: AP

Credit: AP

Miami (Ohio) forward Antwone Woolfolk (13) was off the court after Miami (Ohio) was defeated by Massachusetts in a basketball game in the quarterfinals of the Mid-American Conference tournament, Thursday, March 12, 2026, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
Sports
By NOAH TRISTER – AP Sports Writer
Updated 4 hours ago
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This was the scenario fans have been anticipating — and some have been dreading — for a while: Miami (Ohio) goes 31-0 in the regular season, becomes one of the game's most remarkable stories, then loses in the Mid-American Conference Tournament.

The RedHawks are at the mercy of the selection committee now after they not only lost in their conference tournament, but fell in the quarterfinals to a UMass team that was outside the top 200 in the NET rankings. Miami's weak schedule and lack of major wins are a problem, but going 31-1 against even the RedHawks' schedule is not easy, as evidenced by their solid position in Wins Above Bubble — a metric that measures how many more or fewer wins a team has against its schedule compared to what would be expected from a bubble team.

Also to Miami's benefit is the recent performance of other bubble teams. Indiana lost to Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday. Auburn blew a double-digit lead against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament on Thursday. If Miami is ahead of both those teams, that means the RedHawks are probably in the field as of now.

Miami still needs to be wary of bid thieves, but at this point, the RedHawks' loss should probably concern other bubble teams more than it worries Miami.

Bubble watch

There are no bid thieves left in the ACC, Big 12 or Big Ten, but a few loom in other tournaments. Bubble teams will be hoping Georgetown and Seton Hall fail to win in the Big East, and for Mississippi and Oklahoma to fall short in the SEC. They'll also be pulling for Utah State to win the Mountain West and Saint Louis the Atlantic 10.

The experts say

Last four in according to ...

ESPN: Virginia Commonwealth, Missouri, SMU, Texas.

USA Today: Santa Clara, VCU, SMU, Miami (Ohio).

First four out according to ...

ESPN: Oklahoma, Auburn, Indiana, New Mexico.

USA Today: New Mexico, Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State.

Automatic bids

Here's who has claimed an automatic bid to this year's men's NCAA Tournament: Long Island University (NEC), Tennessee State (OVC), Northern Iowa (MVC), High Point (Big South), Queens (ASUN), North Dakota State (Summit), Troy (Sun Belt), Furman (SoCon), Wright State (Horizon), Hofstra (CAA), Siena (MAAC), Gonzaga (WCC), McNeese (Southland), Lehigh (Patriot), Idaho (Big Sky).

Up next

Utah Valley takes the court for the first time in the WAC Tournament, three days after the league threatened to boot the Wolverines from the event in the latest clash of a protracted dispute over an exit fee — the school is leaving for the Big West after this school year.

The WAC ultimately agreed to include Utah Valley, and as the top seed, the Wolverines received a bye into Friday's semfinal.

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