If America attacks, Iran has said U.S. military bases in the region would be considered legitimate targets, putting at risk tens of thousands of American service members. Iran has also threatened to attack Israel, meaning a regional war again could erupt across the Middle East.
“There would be no victory for anybody — it would be a devastating war,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told India Today in an interview filmed Wednesday just before he flew to Geneva.
“Since the Americans' bases are scattered through different places in the region, then unfortunately perhaps the whole region would be engaged and be involved, so it is a very terrible scenario.”
Ali Vaez, an Iran expert with the International Crisis Group, said it was a good sign that the Americans did not walk away immediately when Iran presented its latest proposal on Thursday.
“There might still not be a breakthrough at the end of this day, but the very fact that the U.S. team is returning shows that there is enough common ground between the two sides," he said.
Geneva talks are the third meeting since June war
The two sides held multiple rounds of talks last year that collapsed when Israel launched a 12-day war against Iran in June and the U.S. carried out heavy strikes on its nuclear sites, leaving much of Iran's nuclear program in ruins even as the full extent of the damage remains unclear.
Araghchi is representing Iran at the talks. Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer and friend of Trump who serves as a special Mideast envoy, is heading up the U.S. delegation with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. The talks are again being mediated by Oman, an Arab Gulf country that's long served as an interlocutor between Iran and the West.
The two sides adjourned after around three hours of talks and planned to resume the discussions later on Thursday. A convoy believed to be carrying Iranian diplomats could be seen returning to the compound hours later.
“We’ve been exchanging creative and positive ideas in Geneva today,” said Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who mediated. “We hope to make more progress.”
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said diplomats held “very intensive” negotiations, meeting with the Omani envoy and the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog. The talks will reconvene later on Thursday, after the sides consult their governments, Baghaei said.
He said the Iranians felt there were “constructive proposals” offered on both nuclear issues and sanctions relief.
Trump wants Iran to completely halt its enrichment of uranium and roll back both its long-range missile program and its support for regional armed groups. Iran says it will only discuss nuclear issues, and maintains its atomic program is for entirely peaceful purposes.
U.S. suspects Iran is rebuilding its program
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Wednesday that Iran is “always trying to rebuild elements” of its nuclear program. He said that Tehran is not enriching uranium right now, “but they’re trying to get to the point where they ultimately can.”
Iran has said it hasn't enriched since June, but it has blocked IAEA inspectors from visiting the sites America bombed. Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press have shown activity at two of those sites, suggesting Iran is trying to assess and potentially recover material there.
The West and the IAEA say Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003. After Trump scrapped the 2015 nuclear agreement, Iran ramped up its enrichment of uranium to 60% purity — a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.
U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to restart a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” Some Iranian officials have spoken openly about the country's readiness to produce a bomb if that decision is taken.
Threat of military action sparks war fears
If the talks fail, uncertainty hangs over the timing of any possible U.S. attack.
If the aim of potential military action is to pressure Iran to make concessions in nuclear negotiations, it’s not clear whether limited strikes would work. If the goal is to remove Iran’s leaders, that will likely commit the U.S. to a larger, longer military campaign. There has been no public sign of planning for what would come next, including the potential for chaos in Iran.
There is also uncertainty about what any military action could mean for the wider region. Tehran could retaliate against the American-allied nations of the Persian Gulf or Israel. Oil prices have risen in recent days in part due to those concerns, with benchmark Brent crude now around $70 a barrel. Iran in the last round of talks said it briefly halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all traded oil passes.
Satellite photos shot Tuesday and Wednesday by Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by the AP appeared to show that American vessels typically docked in Bahrain, the home of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, were all out at sea. The 5th Fleet referred questions to the U.S. military’s Central Command, which declined to comment. Before Iran’s attack on a U.S. base in Qatar during the closing days of the war last June, the 5th Fleet similarly scattered its ships at sea to protect against a potential attack.
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Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Melanie Lidman from Jerusalem. Associated Press reporters Will Weissert in Washington and Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed to this report.