Image courtesy of College of DuPage meteorology.

First frost likely just days away

Despite a couple of cool days, fall has started out quite warm. The stats certainly bear that out. Since Oct. 1, when factoring in both high and low temperatures, we are currently running over 12 degrees above average. Near record-high temperatures were reported Sunday and Monday.

But if you are yearning for cooler weather to get you into the Halloween spirit, you are in luck.

A major change in the jet stream is in the forecast later this week. The jet stream is a west to east oriented fast-moving river of air that typically divides the colder, Canadian air to the north and the warm, tropical air to the south. For much of the last several weeks, the jet stream has been far to the north, flowing over Canada. That has allowed temperatures to soar well above normal.

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The jet stream has buckled across the western United States allowing cold air to make it into the northern Rockies and even into far northern Michigan where the first snowflakes of the season fell late last week. But now, the jet stream is heading south, and so is the colder air.

Temperatures will take the plunge Wednesday into Thursday, falling into the 50s by the time high school football kicks off Friday evening. It will get even cooler over the weekend as nighttime temperatures dipping down to the lower 40s by Saturday morning. But if that isn’t cold enough for you, then perhaps you’ll like the forecast for early next week.

If the long-range models are correct (and there is a small chance they could correct either warmer or cooler), then it is likely the first frost of the season will be on tap for early next week.

Of course, a lot will be dependent on cloud cover and wind speed/direction as to whether frost will form. But all indications are that at least part of the Miami Valley may wake up to frost Monday or Tuesday morning next week.

While temperatures are forecast to moderate late next week, it does look like near or below average temperatures are in store for at least the next 10 days if not the rest of the month. But if you are hoping for snowflakes anytime soon, that likely won’t happen in the Miami Valley. However, there are indications snowflakes could be spotted in northern Ohio a week from today.

Winter isn’t too far away.

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