Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are running neck and neck in three key swing states, but in Ohio Trump would win, while Democrat Bernie Sanders would perform a little better against Trump, according to an independent poll released Tuesday.
Quinnipiac University pollsters found that if the election were held today:
- in Ohio, Trump would beat Clinton 43-39 but he would lose to Sanders 43-41.
- In Florida and Pennsylvania, Clinton holds a one point lead over Trump but Sanders’ leads Trump in Pennsylvania by six points and in Florida by two points.
“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” said Quinnipiac Poll Assistant Director Peter Brown.
Since 1960, no candidate has won the White House without taking at least two of these three states.
In each of the states, Clinton leads among women and Trump holds the edge among men. Voters told pollsters that they believe Trump would do better handling the economy and they view Clinton as more intelligent than Trump.
In Ohio, neither Clinton or Trump would win a likability contest: 62 percent hold a negative view of Clinton and 57 percent don’t like Trump.
Special report from our Ohio Politics political team
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The poll indicates that the contest in Ohio will come down to who turns out at the polls. The reality TV star and real estate tycoon is leading among men, independents, Republicans, and voters over 65. The former U.S. secretary of state leads among women, non-whites, Democrats and voters 18 to 34.
Ohio voters overwhelmingly support requiring voters to show photo ID, the poll found. As it is, voters must show some form of identification to get their ballot, but bank statements or utility bills are among the accepted non-photo ID.
Trump has called for deportation of some 12 million workers and their families who are in the United States illegally and he pledges to build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico and force the Mexican government to pay for it. Nearly a third of voters say illegal immigrants should be forced to leave the U.S. but 54 percent of Ohio voters say they should be allowed to stay and apply for citizenship, the poll found.
“Ohioans oppose ‘The Wall’ 52 - 45 percent, while they are overwhelmingly in favor of requiring a photo ID for anyone wanting to vote,” Brown said. “They are happy with the economy and satisfied with the way things are going in the state - all of which is a nice testament to Gov. John Kasich, who dropped out of the White House race last week, but might be back as Trump’s running mate.”
The poll was conducted on land lines and cell phones between April 27 and May 8. Just over 1,000 voters were interviewed in each of the three states and the margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.