A Clinton-Bush matchup for the 2016 presidential race seems to be shaping up, according to a new poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, if she decides to run for president, is the choice for more than half of Democratic voters in key swing states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, according to the poll.
If Clinton opts out, Vice President Joe Biden leads the pack with tallies ranging from 28 percent to 39 percent.
“Hillary Clinton has an overwhelming lead and currently no serious challengers,” said assistant poll director Peter Brown in a written statement. “Should she decide not to run, the field could grow like a weed. If she stays in, the numbers indicate she has nothing to worry about when it comes to the Democratic nomination.”
On the Republican side, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is the front runner in a potential presidential primaries in Florida, the poll found. Since 1960, no candidate has won the White House without taking at least two of these three states.
With 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney out of the 2016 Republican primary race, Bush would win 32 percent in Florida, 10 percent in Ohio and 12 percent in Pennsylvania.
“Taken as a whole, there is no clear leader for the Republican presidential nomination in these three critical swing states. Former Gov. Jeb Bush is way ahead in Florida with almost a third of the vote, but no candidate is in comparable situation in Ohio or Pennsylvania,” Brown added. “In fact, four candidates are in low double-digits in Ohio and just three in Pennsylvania. Bush is the only one in double digits in all three states, but barely so.”
In Ohio, Gov. John Kasich would win 14 percent of Republican voters while Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker would earn 11 percent. Bush and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky would each garner 10 percent.
In Ohio, Clinton has support from 51 percent of Democrats, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has 14 percent and Biden has 7 percent. If Clinton doesn’t run, Biden’s support in Ohio climbs to 28 percent and Warren’s goes up to 24 percent.
“The big question in Ohio is whether Gov. John Kasich runs. If so, the data indicates that he would be a formidable competitor in his home state. This Swing State Poll, however, indicates that he has a long, long way to go in Florida and Pennsylvania,” Brown said.
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