The committee likes Ohio State and Michigan better than Louisville at this point. Probably a lot better.
That matters because Ohio State and Louisville might both be left out of their conference championship games and trying to make the argument they deserve a spot in the playoff anyway.
While every other team has a chance to improve its resume significantly between now and the release of the final standings Dec. 4, the Cardinals almost certainly won’t.
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Between now and then to stay in the discussion at all, Ohio State will have to add a major feather to its cap by beating Michigan, something Louisville can’t match, so the Cardinals are essentially drawn dead at this point when it comes to Ohio State (and even more so a one-loss Michigan if the Wolverines beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten championship game).
For Louisville, looking more attractive to the committee than an 11-1 Ohio State team on the first weekend of December is essentially impossible.
There are other potential pitfalls out there for the Buckeyes, though.
If Wisconsin and Oklahoma end up being champions of the Big Ten and Big 12, respectively, Ohio State should feel very good thanks to wins over those two. Then it probably won’t matter what the committee thinks of Washington if the Huskies win the Pac 12 with one loss.
However, if the conference champions are Alabama, Clemson, Washington, Penn State and West Virginia, there’s reason for Buckeye fans to sweat all the way up to the announcement of the final four.
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The Huskies are behind Ohio State this week, but they can still add a win over a Washington State team currently in the top 25 and a conference championship to their resume, so it shouldn’t be shocking if Washington ends up in front of the Buckeyes when all is said and done.
In that case if there is one spot left, a controversy-averse committee seems extremely likely to go with a Penn State team that beat Ohio State, and beyond that what they would do with a one-loss conference champion West Virginia (despite its much weaker schedule) vs. one-loss, non-champion Ohio State with the same record is impossible to predict with any certainty.
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