Election 2012: Key facts
270: Electoral votes needed to win
365: Electoral votes Obama received in 2008
196: Obama electoral votes considered safe in 2012
181: Republican electoral votes considered safe
161: Undecided
The Undecideds
Florida: 29 electoral votes
Pennsylvania: 20 votes
Ohio: 18 votes
Michigan: 16 votes
North Carolina: 15 votes
Virginia: 13 votes
Wisconsin: 10 votes
Missouri: 10 votes
Colorado: 9 votes
Iowa: 6 votes
Nevada: 6 votes
New Mexico: 5 votes
New Hampshire: 4 votes
Source: Sabato’s Crystal Ball, University of Virginia Center for Politics
WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama’s visit to Dayton Tuesday didn’t hide a central political reality: He faces a bumpy road to re-election.
Obama still must overcome a series of formidable obstacles and voter worries on the economy, gasoline prices and health care to win a second term.
It’s likely that Obama will be campaigning in the fall with the economy gradually recovering from the 2008 collapse of the financial system. But it is unclear whether the rebound will be robust enough for voters to believe the recession is a thing of the past.
And as gasoline prices soar beyond $4 a gallon, analysts say Obama must convince voters that he is doing everything possible to curb the rapid price increase.
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows that 45 percent of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling the presidency.
Whit Ayres, a Republican consultant in Virginia, said that “the primary obstacle the president faces is that he could not win a referendum on his record today.’’
“It’s pretty clear that the Obama campaign plan is to so thoroughly trash the Republican nominee that he becomes an unacceptable alternative,’’ Ayres said. “It’s fighting from a position from weakness, but it may be the only choice they have.’’
In many ways, Obama faces the most difficult re-election challenge since 1992 when President George H.W. Bush lost to Democrat Bill Clinton because voters doubted that the economy was recovering. But Obama is considered a keen campaigner, and his aides boast he can present a solid record of economic accomplishments.
On the other side, Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are locked in a bitterly divisive presidential primary that could continue for several weeks – if not longer.
Against nearly unanimous opposition from Republicans — including all four Republican presidential contenders — Obama pushed for an $80 billion bailout of General Motors and Chrysler.
Today, those companies — along with Ford, which did not ask for assistance — are reaping large profits and hiring thousands of workers in Ohio and Michigan.
“With the economy . . . it’s people’s perception of it,’’ said Danielle Vinson, head of the political science department at Furman University in South Carolina. “It’s really going to depend in September or October if it’s still going in the right direction and whether people perceive it’s going in the right direction fast enough.’’
Obama also must overcome an electoral map that is not as favorable to him as four years ago when he carried Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois and New York. All those states have lost electoral votes to the South and Southwest.
That puts additional pressure on Obama to retain a group of states that before 2008 tended to lean Republican: Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. Many analysts doubt the president can win Virginia, North Carolina or any southern state.
“He may be able to pull it off in Virginia,’’ said Vinson. “Given what the Republicans have done in the past few weeks to irk independent women with the whole contraceptive debate, which may motivate turnout with those pivotal independent voters. In Northern Virginia, that becomes important.’’
David Winston, a GOP pollster in Washington, said Republicans will have to convince voters they have a serious plan to deal with the economy.
“Just because the past four years have been bad doesn’t mean it’s an automatic ticket for someone else,’’ he said.
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