Vegas sharp breaks down Week 7 SEC games

Here’s a look at up-to-date betting information for each SEC contest, complete with analysis and picks from Brian Edwards.

Edwards, a longtime handicapper with an emphasis on SEC football, will provide his thoughts and insights on the line moves throughout the 2017 season. He is a University of Florida graduate and a weekly radio guest in Las Vegas, Omaha and Memphis.

You can  check out his work on Twitter or on his website,

Note: All times for Saturday games Eastern. Lines and over/under totals are courtesy of Westgate Superbook.

Brigham Young at Mississippi State

Kickoff: Noon
Friday line: Mississippi State minus 24 (opened -22.5)
Over/Under: 48.5
Public (ATS): 63 percent Mississippi State

Edwards’ analysis: “BYU has been the most disappointing team in the country. It’s Mississippi State or pass. Tanner Mangum is back at quarterback for BYU, so I’m not in a huge hurry to lay a big number with Mississippi State. I think Mississippi State will win handily, but I’m not going to lay north of 21 with them.”

The Play: Pass

South Carolina at Tennessee

Kickoff: Noon
Friday line: Tennessee minus 3.5 (opened -2.5)
Over/Under: 47.5
Public (ATS): 66 percent South Carolina

Edwards’ analysis: “I made South Carolina a 3-point favorite. The noon kick favors the Gamecocks, who are 4-0 against the spread with three outright wins when listed as underdogs this season. The game Will Muschamp’s team didn’t win outright as an underdog (when it was +7.5 points) at Texas A&M was a game in which it led by 10 for a good chunk of the second half. Muschamp owns a 3-0 record against Butch Jones, beating the Vols as a 13.5-point underdog in Columbia last season.

“Jones is on a boiling hot seat and I was surprised he didn’t taste a pink slip eight days ago — before breakfast that Sunday — after Georgia went into Neyland and dealt out a 41-0 pimp slap. Tennessee is 0-2 against the spread as a home favorite this season, 10-14 against the spread in 24 such spots during Jones’s about-to-be-over tenure. There will be plenty of empty seats at Neyland, especially with the noon kick. And what fans are there will be ready to turn on this coach that lost the fan base a long time ago and has lost this team.

“Making matters worse, sophomore defensive end Darrell Taylor was suspended indefinitely during the open date. In five games, Taylor had 20 tackles, 1 sack, 1 tackle for loss, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 forced fumble and 1 pass broken up. Remember, this is a defense that’s already without four starters to season-ending injuries, including all three linebackers (Darrin Kirkland, Austin Smith and Cortez McDowell) and one of nation’s best safeties in Todd Kelly. Also, Evan Berry will likely miss his fourth straight game.

“The wrong team is favored here. The opposing coach is a dead man walking who is 0-for-life against Muschamp. We have huge advantages in the coaching department and at the quarterback position. I think South Carolina wins by 10-14 points.”

The Play: South Carolina wins outright

Vanderbilt at Ole Miss

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m.
Friday line: Ole Miss minus 3.5 (opened -3)
Over/Under: 55.5
Public (ATS): 62 percent Vanderbilt

Edwards’ analysis: “Both defenses are playing badly. Vandy’s had a tough stretch, obviously. Kyle Shurmur’s still playing well. He’s got a 12-to-1 TD-INT ratio. Alabama and Georgia are really good, and they got stomped there. I do think Vandy has the coaching advantage here. The Commodores are 9-8 against the spread as a road dog under Derek Mason. I ever-so-slightly lean to Vandy, but it’s not going to make the cut for me.”

The Play: Slight lean to Vanderbilt

No. 10 Auburn at LSU

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m.
Friday line: LSU plus 6.5 (opened +7)
Over/Under: 43.5
Public (ATS): 86 percent Auburn

Edwards’ analysis: “Defense travels and Jarrett Stidham is really starting to get it. Maybe LSU takes a little momentum into this game. I lean to Auburn. They’re looking great right now, but going down to LSU and laying a touchdown kind of scares me.

“Auburn’s dangerous, man. They get Alabama at home [later in the season], and it’s going to be a good one.”

The Play: Pass

Texas A&M at Florida

Kickoff: 7 p.m.
Friday line: Florida minus 3 (opened -3)
Over/Under: 49.5
Public (ATS): 75 percent Texas A&M

Edwards’ analysis: “Receivers Kadarius Toney and Tyrie Cleveland have been downgraded to doubtful. They are Florida’s two best playmakers outside of freshman running back Malik Davis, so I’ve got to pull the trigger on this Texas A&M play against my alma mater. If not for three defensive touchdowns on pick-sixes, UF would be averaging a meager 20.5 points per game, and remember Kentucky gift-wrapped a pair of touchdowns for the Gators by not even lining up a defender on the receivers split out wide.

“Florida is ranked No. 103 out of 130 FBS teams in total defense, and Jim McElwain is running out of the great defensive players Muschamp left behind for him. UF is absolutely lost offensively and that’ll be more evident this week with Toney and Cleveland seemingly certain not to be in uniform. Texas A&M is playing really solid football and quarterback Kellen Mond is getting better each week. The Aggies have covered the number in both games as underdogs this season, and played Alabama to a one-possession game last week, becoming the first team to do so this season.”

The Play: Texas A&M to win outright

Arkansas at No. 1 Alabama

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m.
Friday line: Alabama minus 31.5 (opened -30)
Over/Under: 54
Public (ATS): 74 percent Alabama

Edwards’ analysis: “There are two numbers this week [this game and Missouri-Georgia] that are super high. The underdogs don’t interest me. Arkansas’ offensive line, outside of Frank Ragnow, is garbage. Austin Allen is taking a beating. He’s taking it like a man, but he’s a little banged up. Alabama, the last 25 times they’ve been favored by 25.5 or more, they are 9-15-1 against the spread.

“This is the biggest underdog spot of Bret Bielema’s tenure. The previous high was his first season at ‘Bama. It was 29.5 and they got beat 52-0. However, the last eight road underdog spots for Arkansas, they’re 7-1 against the spread. [Alabama] could be up 38-7, call the dogs off and, all of a sudden, Allen can hit [Jonathan] Nance for a big play and you get backdoored. I’m on the sidelines for this one. I can’t eat the chalk, and Arkansas has too many issues to back them.”

The Play: Pass

Missouri at No. 4 Georgia

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m.
Friday line: Georgia minus 30 (opened -31)
Over/Under: 56.5
Public (ATS): 68 percent Georgia

Edwards’ analysis: “It could be a bit of a flat scenario with Georgia. I can’t lay that many points with them. Three starters on defense are out for Georgia. The underdog gives me nothing to be excited about, either. Missouri is 1-5 against the spread as a road underdog under Barry Odom. This is the biggest underdog spot of Odom’s brief tenure. The previous high was 18.5 against Auburn earlier this season.”

The Play: Pass

The post Vegas sharp breaks down Week 7 SEC games appeared first on SEC Country.

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