TCU should be favored to win every game remaining on its 2017 schedule, according to Bill Connelly’s S&P+ projections.
The Horned Frogs are the highest-ranked Big 12 team in S&P+ at No. 6 overall. The advanced metric system gives them a win probability of more than 50 percent in each of their final five games. They have a 68 percent chance of winning this week against Iowa State.
|Opponent||Opp. S&P+ Rk||
|at Iowa State||24||68%||W||8.2||30.1 – 21.9|
|Texas||57||86%||W||18.8||35.2 – 16.4|
|at Oklahoma||14||53%||W||1.2||32.7 – 31.6|
|at Texas Tech||39||73%||W||10.8||35.2 – 24.4|
|Baylor||109||96%||W||31.3||45.0 – 13.7|
The biggest obstacle on the schedule is still the road game at Oklahoma on Nov. 11. TCU is only slightly favored in that game with a 53 percent win probability. The Frogs are 0-2 in Norman, Okla., since joining the Big 12.
However, the Frogs have a win probability of higher than 70 percent in their other three games: Texas, at Texas Tech and Baylor. Of the five games left on TCU’s schedule, only the Oklahoma game is projected to be less than an 8-point margin of victory for the Frogs.
TCU is currently No. 4 in the Associated Press Top 25 and boasts one of the most impressive resumes in college football. A loss to Oklahoma might be too much to overcome in the College Football Playoff race. However, if TCU wins out in the regular season and also wins the Big 12 Championship, it’s a virtual lock to make the playoff field.
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