ESPN FPI projections for every Big 12 bowl game

Bowl season is upon us, which means there’s plenty of Big 12 football yet to be played.

With teams such as Texas, Kansas State and Texas Tech reaching bowl eligibility in the final weeks of the season, eight of the Big 12’s 10 teams are headed for a bowl game.

That said, after enjoying a higher percentage of success than any other league in the country throughout the regular season, how is the Big 12 projected to pan out throughout the bowl season, per ESPN’s FPI?

Cactus Bowl: Kansas State vs. UCLA

FPI projection win probability: 52.3%

After falling to 3-4 on the season, Kansas State bounced back and won four of its final five games to reach a 7-5 regular season record. Such an effort has led the Wildcats to their eight consecutive bowl appearance. Kansas State beat Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl last season, 33-28, but has notched a 2-5 record throughout its last seven bowl games, with the only other win coming over Michigan in the 2013 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, 31-14. K-State is now projected to earn its second straight bowl win.

Birmingham Bowl: Texas Tech vs. South Florida

FPI projection win probability: 51.6%

Texas Tech needed to win its regular-season finale against Texas to reach bowl eligibility and the Red Raiders did exactly that. The reward? A meeting with former Texas coach Charlie Strong and his new program, South Florida. Despite losing six of its last nine games, though, Texas Tech still stands as a slight favorite over South Florida. Texas Tech hasn’t won a bowl game since beating Arizona State in the 2013 Holiday Bowl, 37-23.

Heart of Dallas Bowl: West Virginia vs. Utah

FPI projection win probability: 49.2%

Once 7-3, West Virginia saw star quarterback Will Grier go down against Texas with a broken finger and the result was back-to-back double digit losses against the Longhorns and Sooners to end the regular season. Grier is currently questionable for the Mountaineers meeting with Utah, but should he play, the odds likely swing in West Virginia’s favor. The Mountaineers made a bowl game in each of the last three seasons, as well, notching a 1-2 record.

Texas Bowl: Texas vs. Missouri 

FPI projection win probability: 59%

Texas began the Tom Herman era by winning just enough games to reach bowl eligibility at 6-6. The Longhorns have missed the postseason each of the last two years after finishing 5-7, and their most recent bowl appearance happened to be the Texas Bowl, as well, in which Texas fell to Arkansas, 31-7. A win would mark Texas’ first winning season since 2013.

Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs. Memphis

FPI projection win probability: 42.6%

For the first time since 2012, Iowa State is headed to a bowl game and the future of football in Ames certainly looks brighter under Matt Campbell. In just his second season, the Cyclones more than doubled their 2016 win total. Now 7-5 at the tail end of a season that featured wins over then-No. 3 Oklahoma and then-No. 4 TCU, an Iowa State upset over Memphis would mean an eight-win and the Cyclones most successful season since season 2000 (9-3).

Camping World Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Virginia Tech

FPI projection win probability: 54.3%

Oklahoma State once aspired for the College Football Playoff, but the Cowboys will instead settle for a trip to the Camping World Bowl. Yet, despite losing two of its final four regular season games, a 10-win season is still within reach, just as was the case last season entering the Alamo Bowl, in which Oklahoma State cruised past Colorado, 38-8. The Cowboys are now headed to their 12th consecutive bowl game. Oklahoma is 7-4 throughout its previous 11 and projected to add another win to that total.

Alamo Bowl: TCU vs. Stanford

FPI projection win probability: 54.4%

Much like Oklahoma State, TCU housed legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations before playoff-bound Oklahoma dismantled them. Instead, the 10-3 Horned Frogs are headed south to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl against Stanford after losing three of their final six games. Since 2004, TCU has missed a bowl game only once (2013), tallying an impressive 8-3 record in its bowl appearances since then. ESPN’s FPI projections yet another win to take place at the Alamodome on Dec. 28.

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Georgia

FPI projection win probability: 47%

Currently riding an eight-game winning streak, Oklahoma enters the College Football Playoff on the heels of a Big 12 Championship. The Sooners have won 22 of their last 23 games dating back to last season, including victories over their last eight ranked foes by a combined 135 points. Oklahoma’s last trip to the College Football Playoff, however, ended with a double digit loss to No. 1 Clemson, 31-17.

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