GOP health care bill faces showdown week in the Senate

Almost everywhere I went this weekend and ran into someone I knew, there was one question asked by just about everyone - whether it was at the pool, on the golf course, or grilling burgers in my back yard - "Will the Republicans get their health care bill through the Senate this week?"

Let's take a look at what the GOP has to do to get that bill approved.

1) Rand Paul - most likely to vote "No" at this point

2) Dean Heller - Nevada Senator said on Friday that there must be changes

3) Mike Lee - said this weekend he thinks the bill doesn't significantly reform health care. But I still wonder if he gets to "Yes" with some late changes.

4) Susan Collins - CBO report is important, plus Planned Parenthood. Still not sure she votes "No."

5) Lisa Murkowski - Planned Parenthood & bill details important. Important one to watch.

6) Ted Cruz - Yes, I know Cruz has said he has concerns. So did the Freedom Caucus in the House, but most of them ended up voting for the bill.

7) Ron Johnson - Same thought for the Wisconsin Republican as Cruz. Can't see either of them being the 51st vote against the bill.

8) Bill Cassidy - No matter what he said to Jimmy Kimmel, I still think it is unlikely that Cassidy votes against the Senate bill. But we'll see.

9+) I see all sorts of other Senatorial names mentioned like Portman, Cotton, Isakson, Rounds and Capito.  Maybe Capito and Portman might have concerns on Medicaid that could cause some troubles, but it still seems like most GOP Senators are ready to vote for this bill.  It will come down to just a couple of Republicans - three "No" votes would be enough to derail this plan.

Clearly, the GOP leadership - and the White House - has some legislative arm twisting to do in coming days.

If this plan stays on track, it could well be voted through on Thursday or Friday.  And if that happens, I wouldn't rule out the GOP thinking about bringing it right to the floor of the House for a final vote.

But we'll see if we actually get that far.  Stay tuned.  It will be a very interesting week in the halls of Congress.

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