Slightly more likely to be good winter than bad one

Updated 9:27 PM Saturday, October 31, 2009

In the course of each of the four seasons, inevitably, if the good weather continues for a period of time, rain, wind or snow follow. One must always think of the changes in heaven and earth. In the same way, one must be prepared for changes in the mind of a person.

— Miyamoto Musashi

This week

The Buzzard Migration Moon, becoming completely full on Nov. 2 at 2:14 p.m., wanes throughout the period, entering its final quarter at 10:56 a.m. Nov. 9.

Summer’s Hercules is setting in the west by 10 p.m., and the Great Square of Late Autumn is moving in behind it. Cassiopeia lies due south of Polaris, its deepest intrusion overhead.

Aldebaran leads Orion higher each night. Procyon of Canis Major is just emerging from the east; watch for it at midnight.

The Clark County night grows twelve minutes longer this week, sunrise time moving to about a quarter past seven, and sunset close to half past five. By Nov. 7 the sun will be about 70 percent of the way to winter solstice.

This weather

Weather history suggests that cold waves usually reach Springfield on or about Nov. 2, 6, 11, 16, 20, 24 and 28.

If strong storms occur this month, weather patterns suggest that they will happen during the following periods: Nov. 2-5, 14-16 and 22-27.

Average high temperatures continue their decline through the week, dropping into the lower 50s here in Clark County. Nighttime lows are in the 30s throughout the region.

Expect November temperatures to keep falling one degree every 50 hours. As averages plummet a total of 14 degrees in the next 30 days, you can expect up to 15 mornings with frost.

Daybook

Today, Nov. 2: Ninety percent of the winter wheat has been planted and most of it has sprouted by now. Many fields have been plowed for spring. Sugar beets are typically more than three-fourths dug, and the pumpkin harvest continues.

Soil temperatures soon fall into the 40s, the point at which mulch should be placed around the bases of plants and bushes.

Nov. 3: Use lower-grade supplements for your livestock early in November, gradually increasing nutrient value and quantity throughout the winter.

Save your best-quality feed supplies for the colder months and the months closest to kidding and lambing time.

And don’t limit your nutritional planning to just your animals. Give yourself and your family the best “feed” as the weather becomes more demanding.

Nov. 4: In the fields and woods, the last autumn violets are still blooming beside a few chicory, Queen Anne’s lace, thyme-leafed speedwell, mallow, asters and goldenrod.

Wild geraniums, thistles, and cinquefoil can be growing back. Sometimes a parsnip is ready to bloom. Garlic mustard, sweet Cicely, Virginia creeper, burdock, red clover, waterleaf, ground ivy, celandine, sweet rocket, dock, leafcup have also revived, looking ahead six months to spring.

Nov. 5: It’s the pivotal day for autumn cloud cover to intensify in Clark County. A lack of sun means slow drying for wet hay and increased likelihood for mold in feed supplies.

Clouds also mean the first major attacks of seasonal affective disorders in humans.

Nov. 6: Late fall, a transition period of chilly temperatures, gray skies, and killing frosts, typically arrives by today.

Witch hazels bloom, marking the shift of the season. Indoors, mature aloe plants often send up flower spikes. Ginkgo, magnolia, and white mulberry leaves can fall within a few hours.

Nov. 7: As most of the leaves are down in the Miami Valley, the countdown for April gets under way. There will be about 50 days of rain or snow between now and the first daffodils.

Something else to count is the number of completely cloudy days. There are rarely more than 75, but rarely fewer than 60.

And there are usually 27 totally clear days (with a 9-day margin for error) between the final goldenrod and the first hepatica.

Another way to gauge the progress of winter is to count major cold fronts. There should be 30 in all, 20 of which will coincide with changes in the phase of the moon.

Nov. 8: The first rutting period for whitetail deer begins in the first week of November in the northern tier of states, and about a week to 10 days later in the central states. The length of the rut is about 14 days.

The secondary rutting period starts about Nov. 25 in the north and about Dec. 3 in the south. By the end of the secondary rut, many bucks have lost their early autumn sleekness, and have begun to lose weight.

Mind and body clock

November is the first month since March that the SAD (seasonal affective disorder) Index readings consistently indicate a high likelihood of the occurrence of depression, irritability and anxiety in many people.

The average length of November’s night is almost equal to the night’s length in December and January; the weather becomes more severe, and clouds thicken.

All those factors equal SAD. And the index rises throughout the period, climbing from 43 to 53 (on a scale of one to 75) by Nov. 10.

Moon and livestock

The moon is overhead between midnight and dawn this week, making that time the best for fishing and snacking.

Hunting and feeding livestock and children might be done at the second-best lunar time, when the moon is below this part of the earth – in the early to mid-afternoon.

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