Voinovich vote right, but jobs bill not answer

11:10 PM Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Last month’s basically flat unemployment numbers look like good news to some people who are highly focused on the economy. After all, February’s huge snowfalls peaked in precisely the week when certain stats were being counted.

Tens of thousands of job losses were reported in construction, retail and other realms because people couldn’t get around.

Among the homebound, too, were people who might have been out seeking jobs, which are materializing in some sectors, though in small numbers.

So the flatness of the stats might be covering up some progress. Meanwhile, some analysts are struck by the numbers about retailing. Most of the big chains have posted increasing sales gains over the past six months, with the February jump being the largest since 2007.

Dean Baker is with the Center for Economic and Policy Research, which has been skeptical of signs of recovery. But he says of the current direction, “It’s strikingly good. It’s much better than it had been looking.”

Still, nobody — but nobody — is expecting any dramatic improvement in the job situation. Profits may return for good; overall economic growth may return. Jobs? Not so much.

As for how things are going so far, flat unemployment rates aren’t the best demonstrations of the problem. They only count how many people say they are looking for jobs. Best, perhaps, to count the actual number of jobs. But, on that score, too, the overall picture is bleak.

Certain sectors are showing slightly more jobs, including manufacturing, which is good for Ohio to see. Remarkably, even the auto industry is a growth area.

But the overall loss of 36,000 jobs in February put the nation more than 136,000 short of where it needs to be just to keep up with a growing population.

So the politicians talk “jobs, jobs, jobs,” even more than usual and, certainly, across party lines.

But whether their declared interest will pay off for the unemployed is doubtful.

President Barack Obama has proposed tax breaks for employers who hire unemployed workers. One might think that would win a lot of Republican support, given how often members of that party emphasizes the usefulness of tax breaks for business.

And, yes, there has been some support. Ohio Sen. George Voinovich was among five Republicans who bolted from the party leadership to kill a filibuster against the idea. When the bill itself was voted on, eight more Republicans joined in.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, an early sponsor, said “This is a conservative approach to help put our economy back on track through tax relief, not more government spending.”

But only six Republicans in the House supported that body’s version of the bill (none from southwest Ohio).

There were concerns about the bill increasing the deficit and failing to create jobs. Suddenly, it was Republicans expressing doubts about the usefulness of business tax breaks.

The main provisions of the bill allow employers not to pay payroll taxes on any unemployed workers they hire this year, and to take $1,000 off their federal taxes for any such employee who stays a year.

The cost of the bill is $15 billion, far too little to have a dramatic impact on an economy measured in the trillions. That’s all the more clearly true when you figure that some of the new hiring would presumably happen even without the new incentives.

Most of the people promoting new efforts to spur job growth have used figures of $100 billion and more.

The reluctance of employers to hire — for fear of another economic downturn, given all they went through the last time around — is likely to be very hard to break through.

— Cox News Service

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