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Hall of Fame baseball writer Hal McCoy is in his 36th year of covering the Cincinnati Reds, the longest tenure for any active writer covering one team. Counting spring training and postseason games, McCoy has covered more than 7,000 major-league baseball games, written close to 18,000 baseball stories and eaten enough hot dogs to give Babe Ruth indigestion.Home > Blogs > The Real McCoy | Cincinnati Reds baseball news > Archives > 2008 > July > 24 > Entry
Don’t trade starting pitchers
Worst trade the Cincinnati Reds ever made during my 36 years on the beat: outfielder Paul O’Neill to the New York Yankees for outfielder Roberto Kelly.
Kelly was noteworthy only in that he was from Panama, and to make this deal equal the Yankee would have had to have thrown the Panama Canal into the deal.
We all know what became of O’Neill (superstar stud for the pin-stripers) and who knows what became of Kelly?
That trade was made because of raw nerves between manager Lou Piniella and O’Neill. Piniella thought a big boy like O’Neill should hit for more power and wanted him to hit more home runs. O’Neill resisted. He liked hitting .300 and hitting doubles.
I’ll never forget the day I was standing with Piniella behind the batting cage and O’Neill was hitting — spraying line drives. “Look at that. Big O’Neill. Big O’Neill my a**,” said Piniella, loud enough for O’Neill to hear.
Shortly after that, O’Neill was gone.
I bring this up because the trade deadline approaches and it is Be Careful Time.
There wasn’t a whole lot former GM Jim Bowden did that I liked, but there was a sign in his office with three words on it: “Pitching, pitching, pitching.”
The game starts and ends with pitching. And I loved the line pitcher Bob Gibson once threw out about his catcher, Tim McCarver: “The only thing he knew about pitching was that he couldn’t hit it.”
Anyway, there is no doubt there is interest in Bronson Arroyo. The New York Yankees, for one. Maybe back to Boston. Colorado is even interested, if the Reds will chew up some of the $25 million he’ll be owed in 2009 and 2010.
I say be careful. Pitching, especially starting pitching, is the rarest commodity on the baseball market. The cliche is true: “You can never get enough pitching.”
When Arroyo made his impassioned plea Wednesday to stay with the Reds, he listed the starting pitchers owned by the Reds with bright futures — himself, Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson.
As somebody on this blog pointed out, “That’s six starters. They need five. Trade Arroyo.”
Does anybody out there really believe all of them are “for sures.”
I wouldn’t trade Volquez, but I’m not yet convinced after only a half a season. His last couple of starts were shaky and he is probably getting tired. He pitched winter ball, he came to spring camp under a lot of pressure to win a spot in the rotation and was pitching as if it was the regular season from his first spring start. Now he has thrown 122 inning this year.
Be careful.
Cueto is only 22 and has great stuff — but he is 7-9 with an ERA near five and has a flaw of throwing too many pitches. Will he get better? Remains to be seen.
Be careful.
Bailey, 22, has thrown two straight decent games and maybe he has turned the corner. Some people want to trade him. Is he close to becoming what the Reds thought when they drafted him No. 1? He appears in a better mental state and more receptive to guidance than he was last year or last spring. Is he what they thought?
Be careful.
Thompson, on the DL right now in Louisville, is only 22 and scouts say he has a lot to learn and isn’t major-league ready. He does, though, have promise.
Arroyo and Harang have shown they can pitch in the majors, they have the experience, and every team needs sound experience in the rotation. Arroyo has been up-and-down and is on a five-game winning streak.
You know another thing I like about Arroyo? He isn’t just a pitcher, as are most pitchers. He is a baseball player. He can bunt, field his position, run the bases (he is used as a pinch-runner at times) and can hit a little bit.
Anyway, the point here is that if I’m Walt Jocketty, I don’t trade starting pitching - unless it is somebody like Eric Milton, who was never suited to Great American Small Park. And I can’t fault the trade of Kyle Lohse - he was 9-12 with a 4.62 ERA at the time of his trade last year.
And the back of his bubblegum card is not stuffed with glossy numbers. But that, too, is an example of, “You never know,” with pitching. He is tearing it up in St. Louis and to me it is why you try to preserve as much starting pitching as possible.
The Reds have three 22-year-olds on the fast track - Cueto, Bailey, Thompson. Will all three be legitimate stars? Maybe. But doubtful. If one turns into a consistent year-by-year winner, that’s good. If two make it, that’s great. If three make it - well, don’t count on it.
The point, though? Don’t trade good pitching prospects. Of course, the Texas Rangers might question that, getting Josh Hamilton for Volquez. Both teams are happy with that one - and should be.
Could the Reds be that lucky to get a player of that caliber for one of their starters? Doubt it.
Everybody has been on the Reds for years and years and years (rightfully so) because they never develop a starting pitcher - Tom Browning being the last of any note and he was pitching before a lot of you were born.
Now they have three 22-year-olds out of their own system. Keep ‘em. Keep ‘em all. But be careful. Don’t trade Arroyo or Harang (or even Josh Fogg) just yet. It’s too early to tell on what is now The Little Three that could become The Big Three.
Two more years for those three kids and then a decision can be made. By then the contracts for Arroyo and Harang will be up and good decisions can be made.
So who does Jocketty trade - if he can.
Check in tomorrow.
Permalink | Comments (62) | Post your comment |
Comments
By Kevin
July 29, 2008 2:48 PM | Link to this
Just thought you might like to know Hal…Its July 29th and Im pullinthe plug. I cant for the life of me continue this scharade for one more day. After 37 years its just become to gut wrenching to watch a team that doesnt seem to give a damn. Guess I`ll see ya in the spring…thanks for all you do!By jester1961
July 28, 2008 3:15 PM | Link to this
Love him or hate him, you have to respect Griffey’s accomplishments. I, personally, am a big fan of Jr and think he’s has been a great addition to this team. My only regret is the injuries that have plagued him since he has been here. He is a great player with one of the sweetest swings in the sport. I am tired of the Reds trading away good players for crap players. Lets get rid of a couple of our crappy pitchers(Arroyo for example) and start buying some quality pitching. Our pitching has sucked since the mid 80’s. There appears to be some young great arms coming through our minor league system, but they need some winning experience and leadership in the bullpen. The problem there is that the entire league is watered down with mediocre pitching. I guess we just keep trying to develop the young kids.By jester1961
July 28, 2008 3:15 PM | Link to this
Love him or hate him, you have to respect Griffey’s accomplishments. I, personally, am a big fan of Jr and think he’s has been a great addition to this team. My only regret is the injuries that have plagued him since he has been here. He is a great player with one of the sweetest swings in the sport. I am tired of the Reds trading away good players for crap players. Lets get rid of a couple of our crappy pitchers(Arroyo for example) and start buying some quality pitching. Our pitching has sucked since the mid 80’s. There appears to be some young great arms coming through our minor league system, but they need some winning experience and leadership in the bullpen. The problem there is that the entire league is watered down with mediocre pitching. I guess we just keep trying to develop the young kids.By James
July 27, 2008 10:47 AM | Link to this
Trade Dunn and Griffey…Release Patterson nobody would trade for him anways. Get rid of Alex Gonzalez this spring. Weathers gone. Move Burton to set up role. I say the Reds should be buyers, we’ve been selling for 9 years now and havent got anywhere. We have enough young players, get some proven 28-30 year old players and up the pay-roll more.By Matt
July 26, 2008 7:58 PM | Link to this
Let me get this straight jumoke. You say I am using personal attacks? Have you not read brarhopper’s posts? I think you should get your facts straight.By Jumoke
July 26, 2008 3:58 PM | Link to this
Matt, it’s really funny how easily riled you are. And your incessant personal attacks and policing this blog are absolute signs of your immaturity and little man complex.By Matt
July 26, 2008 12:34 PM | Link to this
Well, brarhopper I am proud of you that you have a job. I think all of us on this blog should pitch in and get you a reward of some kind for that. I too have a job. It’s not much, just a stop-gap part time job. But it pays my bills and keeps my head above water right now. But you know what? The last time I checked I don’t believe this blog is about what our jobs are. It’s about discussing Reds baseball, which you clearly have no clue about, so you choose to make personal attacks and insults. How sad and childish of you. Also brarhopper, a secret for you, I don’t drink either. So even when you try to make personal insults, you miss the mark. My personal life is none of your business, as your personal life is none of mine. The majority of us are here to talk intelligently about Reds baseball, and I truly hope that you will join the rest of us soon. Thanks.By Brarhopper
July 26, 2008 12:17 PM | Link to this
Unlike you, Matt, I don’t drink. Also unlike you, I am employed and don’t sit around all day at the computer doing nothing but hoggin’ the blog with irrelevant windy posts. About 20% of the posts on this site are from you and your bottomless pit of an ego. Society is fortunate that you are not a cop.By Matt
July 26, 2008 11:19 AM | Link to this
For some reason brarhopper I just don’t believe you. I guess the reason for that, and mind you I’m just guessing here, would be that you haven’t posted anything remotely close to intelligent on this blog. You just get more laughably ridiculous as time goes on. I may be 23 years old and very young, but I’m light years ahead of you on anything Reds or baseball related. Go back to sleep, or bar hopping.By Brarhopper
July 26, 2008 11:02 AM | Link to this
That’s funny, Matt boy. Hal told me he thought you were a still-wet-behind-the-ears clowns. HahahahaBy Dennis
July 26, 2008 7:05 AM | Link to this
No the worst trade ever was this one: Tony Perez “December 16, 1976: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds with Will McEnaney to the Montreal Expos for Woodie Fryman and Dale Murray.” It ain’t even close. You have a short memory Hal.By Matt
July 25, 2008 11:11 PM | Link to this
Haha. So in your view the Reds haven’t won with Griffey because of Griffey? That it’s Griffey’s fault? Give me a break. The Reds haven’t won with Griffey because they haven’t built a winning team around him. Griffey, when healthy, has more than done his share for this team. Your blatant, utter disrespect for a Hall of Famer is staggering. Your utter ignorance regarding Junior is overwhelming. Your comments simply don’t reflect the truth, Brarhopper. Ask any player who has played with Griffey on this team since 2000 if he is a “cancer”. Ask any manager who has managed Griffey if he is a “cancer” or “albatross”. Your opinion on Griffey Brarhopper is so wrong and outlandish it’s laughable. Even Hal McCoy has told me that he agrees with me about Griffey. Nobody who is a serious baseball fan or who has a clue about Griffey, the Reds or baseball have the point of view that you have, Brarhopper. Give me, and the rest of this blog, a break.By Brarhopper
July 25, 2008 10:41 PM | Link to this
Agree 100% with walt. I haven’t posted in a while, but since blog hog policeman is at it again, so am I. Griffey is a cancer in the clubhouse and an albatross around the neck of this team and has been for most of his Cincy years. This defensive post defending Griffey as “being in the middle of it” is absolutely delusional. he’s in the middle of clutch strikeouts, lazy groundouts to the right side, pop outs as witnessed by a subpar batting average. He is a man with a great future behind him. Get what you can for him NOW or just give him away…with him, the Reds are going nowhere (just like all his other years in Cincy).By Matt
July 25, 2008 10:32 PM | Link to this
Walt, I think you are extremely, extremely off base in your opinion of Griffey, and your take is a complete distortion of the facts. As long as people on this blog bash Griffey and say completely untrue, unfair things about him I will continue to stand up for Griffey. He is a “liability” in the outfield? Hardly. He makes all the routine plays and hustles frequently to make the not-so-routine plays. You mention 610 home runs like it’s nothing. I am quite frankly surprised and frustrated to see some of the downright hatred for Junior on this blog. This man is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and while he clearly and obviously is no longer the player he once was, he clearly has gas left in the tank. He has helped the Reds and come through for the Reds countless times during his tenure with Cincinnati. Every time (well, 99% of the time) he comes to the plate he gives professional at-bats that don’t always come up with a positive result, but he is one of the few players in this lineup who gives professional, quality ABs every time to the plate, and because of that, Griffey has been the cause or right in the middle of some big innings this season. It is downright outrageous to claim that he has done nothing for this team since being traded here. The one thing I agree with you about is that he shouldn’t be batting third in the lineup. The 7th spot would be more suitable for him at this point in his career. And Junior “can’t hit to left field”? That’s news to this Reds fan. Teams put the shift on he and Dunn because they are more likely to pull the ball than hit to the opposite field.By Walt
July 25, 2008 9:14 PM | Link to this
Everyone is missing the obvious … Griffey needs to go. He is NOT helping this team. A major leaguer who has the “shift” put on him because he can’t hit to left field? That’s disgraceful. Baker keeps batting him 3rd when he should be 7th or 8th … or sitting in the dugout. He’s a liability in the outfield. He’s keeping younger players from developing by being in the line-up. He’s admittedly not a “team leader”. I hope he gets 610 real, real quick … so the Reds can send him packing anywhere for any offer! He’s hurt the Reds for his entire tenure.By HuberTucky
July 25, 2008 8:55 PM | Link to this
In agreement with redfuture re: a catcher. One of the many trade/ availability rumors on ESPN has it that Russell Martin ($500,000 this year) of the Dodgers is available. Although I find this rumor hard to believe, if true, he’d be a fantastic young (25) catcher for the Reds for years to come. He bats near .300 and is awesome defensively (did yo see him in the All Star Game?), & they say he’s good with the pitchers. PLUS, he’s from Toronto so maybe Votto would help persuade him. I just find it hard to believe that the Dodgers wouldn’t do everything in their power to keep him. Then again, it’s just an ESPN rumor…for what that’s worth.By Jeremy
July 25, 2008 6:16 PM | Link to this
They are absolutely sellers. The need another solid crop of prospects to increase their odds of being a competitive team next year. They might finally be “1 year away.By redfuture
July 25, 2008 4:44 PM | Link to this
To me, the biggest question about potential trades is, “What are you offering?” At this point in time I’d only consider a package that includes a top-line catching prospect, because I can’t think of any already in the majors and available that I’d want. Then I’d debate about whom to trade. When I say a catcher I mean just that. Someone good defensively and offensively.By Sam I Am
July 25, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this
The Reds haven’t won with Griffey, Dunn, or Arroyo, so why are these guys golden??? Trade them both and get some youth in return. At least the Reds can finally look FORWARD for once instead of reminiscing about the days of the Big Red Machine.By borovicz
July 25, 2008 4:30 PM | Link to this
Cueto, Volquez and Bailey are not yet reliable starters. Arroyo is reliable but quite inconsistent. Harang is in limbo now-was his collapse this year a bit of reality or an aberration? The Reds’ starting pitching is only ordinary at best right now, although it could be much better soon. Hal is right. Hold tight and see what develops with the starters over the next 2 years. Not so the offense, however!By bigdoc
July 25, 2008 4:05 PM | Link to this
Reds best have their hitting shoes on! ‘Rocks’ are batting about .400 since the break! Tulo’s back, all are raking—could be a long night for Volquez.By bigdog
July 25, 2008 3:41 PM | Link to this
In my opinion the worst trade in the last 36 years was getting rid of Tony Perez. It killed the Big Red Machine.By Jack
July 25, 2008 3:40 PM | Link to this
Just saw some rumors that the Yanks have interest in Dunn and the Rockies have interest in Arroyo. Lets see would anyone do Dunn for Ian Kennedy and another prospect?By HuberTucky
July 25, 2008 3:28 PM | Link to this
Only an absolute idiot gets rid of Hairston…a total bright spot on this dismal year and a very valuable sparkplug, leadoff, base stealer, make-it-happen kinda guy and his versatility is huge and his $ costs are low. Plus, this team NEEDS his energy! I fully agree with Jack about Bronson… trade him while his value is high. He has NOT been a dependable pitcher for the Reds and we have tons of young talent in the pipe and on the team already. Plus, Bronson will be costly next two years of his heavily backend loaded contract @$25 million.By Votto 4 President
July 25, 2008 2:56 PM | Link to this
Hey Hal, nice article… I am anxious to see if any deals are worked out just like everyone else here… What ever happened to Tom Shearn and his nasty curveball? He had some decent outings last year when we needed him. He could fill in the number 5 spot in the rotation in a pinch.By Brad65
July 25, 2008 2:42 PM | Link to this
Are we buyers or sellers? Listening (painfully) to George and Chris the other night, Chris said their were scouts from Baltimore, Kansas City, San Fran, and a couple of others I don’t remember. Obviously they’re not advance scouts, and honestly, they should all be sellers and not buyers, so, I’m thinking we must be looking to add and not subtract this year…is it possible????By Jack
July 25, 2008 2:17 PM | Link to this
About six weeks ago, how many of you would have traded Bronson for the recording of his horrible commercial? For his tenure with the Reds, he has gone on two good steaks. The first was his first season with Reds, from beginning to season to just about the All-Star break. The second and last is his current streak. In the middle of those two is a long stretch of not even mediocrity, but very poor pitching. If you cant decide which player you are getting, trade while the player is hot. What happens in two weeks, when he goes in the tank…again? Can anyone really tell me Bronson has solved all his problems. Hal, one further horrible trade, Casey for Dave Williams. The same issue was raised, more power should be had for your first baseman…instead of hitting .315 and 35 doubles a year.By Matt
July 25, 2008 2:17 PM | Link to this
The only guys I would even think about trading at this point are Weathers, Affeldt, Patterson (if you can trade him), and maybe Hairston. I would deal Patterson for anything I could get. I’m dead serious. If the other team offered cash considerations, bats, whatever, I’d take them up on it. Patterson is one of the worst players in Reds history and has no place on a major league team, except maybe as batboy. Unless I was overwhelmed by a trade involving Dunn, I wouldn’t trade him. I would make every effort I could to re-sign him, because as the last person previously pointed out, the Reds need a guy in the lineup (at least one) who can mash home runs in that sandbox they play in. That man is Dunn. He gets on base and he has come through for the Reds time after time in big situations this year. He is finally molded into a solid all-around player, and if I’m the Reds I keep him until he retires. The same goes for EE. The guy WILL win a Gold Glove, and most likely sooner rather than later. His defense is remarkably better at 3B than it has been in recent years, and offensively he is becoming the player the Reds thought he would be when they traded for him way back in 2001. Anyone remember that deal? The Reds traded pitcher Rob Bell to the Rangers in exchange for Ruben Mateo and Edwin Encarnacion. Who got the better of that deal? The Reds. I think a lot of folks are way too hard on a guy playing in just his 3rd season, and only really is 2nd full season as the Reds third baseman. He is 25 years old, and just starting his big league career. The Reds would be wise for sticking with him, and he has shown us why several times this year, with his glove and with his bat. Now, let’s get that three game sweep of the Rockies and be 53-53 when this homestand is over. Anybody else feelin’ that?? Go Reds!!By Mark
July 25, 2008 2:13 PM | Link to this
Hal, I agree with everything said that the Reds need to not trade Arroyo or any of their starters really. But the reason for my post is to hear your opinion on the Reds organization and how they dealt with what happened last night. At their low-A Dayton Dragons game, a brawl occurred with 15 player ejections and both managers getting the boot, however both Walt and the Cubs GM decided they didn’t want pitchers in the outfield so the ejections were overturned. WHAT?!? I understand protecting the players, but come on, that is a disgrace. If you don’t want to use your pitchers in the outfield (Both would have had to use at least 2 as position players) then forfeit the game and save your dignity and respect. With all due to Walt Jocketty, he just lost all my respect with this decision.By mike cahill
July 25, 2008 2:01 PM | Link to this
I’ll be very surprised if a deal is made of any obvious significance. I would not trade any starting pitcher. I would not trade Weathers nor am I willing to give up on Cordero. I would look to sign Dunn because he hits home runs in that band box and the Reds need home runs. Don’t even think about trading Hairston or Keppinger. That leaves untradeables and untouchables. Sign a right handed hitting free agent and keep looking for a catcher. Trade Edwin but don’t expect anything more than Royce Clayton.By mutraman
July 25, 2008 1:44 PM | Link to this
Are you guys talking about the same Reds team I’ve been watching all summer. If this team is so good, ya think we might get up to .500? Get closer to the Cubs and the Brewers than we are to the Pirates? And as far as the Dunn/O’Neill comparisons, after 7 years, Dunn has yet to play on a .500 team. O’Neill had 5 rings. I agree with Hal, don’t squander the pitching. But when it comes to the everyday players, it would be nice to have a few guys who know how to win.By Matt
July 25, 2008 12:03 PM | Link to this
Nick W, I’m with you and I feel your pain. As I’ve said many times before on this forum, teams that are constantly building for the “future” are always building for the future, that never comes. The Pirates and Royals are prime examples of that. This team has been “rebuilding” since 2001. It’s time to see a winner around here, and I think the Reds finally are closer to that than they’ve ever been. This team is a few pieces short of a playoff berth or World Series berth, but this IS a good team, and Reds fans have a lot to be excited about. That’s IF they keep this team together and add the pieces necessary. If they can get something good in return for Weathers and maybe even Affeldt, go for it. But trading guys like Dunn and Arroyo? Heck no, and I don’t see the Reds doing that.By nick w
July 25, 2008 11:05 AM | Link to this
i really can’t comment on paul oneil cus im only 19 and i don’t remember what the reds did back in the early 90’s but i don’t want to look back 5 years from now and see a article that talks about the worst trade in red history being arryo or dunn or someone else so im really nervous about what they r gonna do cus like everyone has been saying not just on this blog but old players like bench or rose that this is gonna be a good team with the management and owners and young players so i just hope that we won’t have to talk about what could have been years from now and talk about how great of team this was..and with the reds it is has been ,atleast for me, what could have been and im getting sick of it..By Cait
July 25, 2008 10:16 AM | Link to this
Hal, this is your most on-target blog of the year and the commenters are actually making good points. What a day! I said yesterday that I like that the Reds have “young” veterans in Dunn, Phillips, Harang and Arroyo - I believe all are under 30. I keep them all to mix with the youngsters next year. The Reds are close. I would not make anyone untouchable, but I would hesitate to trade without real value coming in return (in other words, no low level minor leaguers, we need value that’s ready to play MLB by next year). I like EE, but if we can send him and maybe one or two of the middle relievers (Weathers/Lincoln seem marketable to a contender) for a CF or #1 catcher who hits right handed for power &/or avg., then pull the trigger. Kepp/Hairston/Freel can handle 3rd. Next year, I first check the free agent market to fill holes before going the trade route. I see signing Dunn as imperitive because he’s the only consistent power source on the team. I don’t think this team is going to get back in the race this year, but I do think they could finish with a winning record and that would be a huge confidence boost. I already see a difference in the body language of players since the first of the year. And doco, yea, I remember the criticism of O’Neill. He and Casey both were criticized because they were big guys who did not hit for power but were content to bang out singles and doubles and hit for avg. Similar to the opposite criticism of Dunn who hits HRs, but K’s too much and doesn’t hit for average. Seems we’re never satisfied!By GeneWV
July 25, 2008 9:51 AM | Link to this
Hal, I can’t find a single thing in your article that I disagree with. Really good peice. I would say you were reading my mind, but I doubt you have a microscope! Anyway, I’m sure you would not attempt to, even if a microscope were available. We have jumped the gun early before, almost never to our advantage, where pitching is concerned.By Doco
July 25, 2008 9:35 AM | Link to this
O’Neil received the same criticism as Dunn? A .300 hitter vs. a .230 hitter? That story about Lou wanting to change O’Neil’s swing makes me lose a lot of respect for Lou. What I wouldn’t give now for a .300 hitter who hits to all fields! I love Dunn’s personality and stature and if he could hit even .280 he’d be my favorite player in baseball. But to go almost a full YEAR without a sac fly as your teams main RBI man shows that he is not a good run producer. The Reds won’t win anything while their top 2 RBI men hit below .250 and struggle to make contact with runners in scoring position.By Steven Ross
July 25, 2008 8:50 AM | Link to this
“We haven’t won in a number of years and we need to try and do something different,” Walt Jocketty said this week. Read between the lines fellas. There will be trades and don’t be surprised if Arroyo and Dunn are both moved.By Matt
July 25, 2008 8:36 AM | Link to this
I agree with you MAC about the Reds sitting on the sideline this past offseason, at least partly. It seems like they got most of what they needed, but didn’t finish the job. I loved the fact and still do that they got Dusty Baker and “Coco” Cordero. But they also were linked to Kenny Lofton, Erik Bedard, Joe Blanton, among others. Lofton is not a great outfielder anymore, but he would have been an upgrade over CP in CF the first couple months of the season, no doubt. Bedard has struggled in Seattle, but who’s to say he would have struggled here. I know, or at least I heard the Orioles were asking for Jay Bruce, and I wouldn’t have traded him for Bedard or Blanton either, but to get talent you have to give up talent. The Reds went halfway this offseason, but not all the way. They could have pushed themselves over the top with a couple more key moves, and didn’t. I think this offseason they will though. The Reds have a smart front office/braintrust in place (Castellini, Jocketty, Baker) and they know what the Reds need, and I believe they’ll see to it that it gets done.By Oldtimer
July 25, 2008 8:12 AM | Link to this
A former Reds general manager once said “Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make.” I agree. Don’t trade your future for possible immediate success.By John
July 25, 2008 6:45 AM | Link to this
Don’t trade starting pitching…unless you can get front-line position players in return. Reds fans under-value their own players. Everyone else can overcharge for starting pitching and has overcharged the Reds in the past. If the Reds try to move any pitching, they should ask for the ranch. If you don’t get any offers, you still have a crapload of pitching. Win-win.By MAC
July 25, 2008 1:54 AM | Link to this
No doubt, there are a lot of valid pts being made here; however, the Reds sat on the sidelines this past off season and what has that gotten them…not much better IMO. If Cincy were truely interested in winning, they would have made a play for C.C. IMO; now there’s a baseball player that’s worth the contract.By jimi
July 25, 2008 1:10 AM | Link to this
my redlegs just need to be patient. and come on, my man. have you forgotten george foster for ALEX “I’M THE NEXT JOHNNY BENCH” TREVINO?!?! lmao.By redlegs
July 24, 2008 11:41 PM | Link to this
Gotta agree with Aaron - love Bronson - but $25 mill for two years is #2 starter money. between the bargain deal we have Fogg at, Harang & the 4 kids we still have 6 starters + the minors aren’t bare anymore. I agree with the cut list of Weathers, Coffey * Magic. would keep Bray, Burton & Lincoln for sure - but agree Coco should be made available. Freel over Hopper & keep Hairston, Bruce, Votto, Dunn, Kepp, Phillips & Valentin. I would also keep Griff one more year if affordable, & use the $25 mil saved from Arroyo to truly upgrade at RF, or closer or 3rd base - instead of the latin Brandon Larson. ee is never going to be “that guy” that people want at 3rd. I would also agree with the writer to keep Javy but get rid of 2 #2 catchers for a #1.By Matt
July 24, 2008 11:18 PM | Link to this
I would definitely have to agree with you about Weathers, Mr. Baseball. If the Reds can get something decent in return for him, he could and should go. He can be replaced. Other than him though, I don’t see the Reds trading away any of their better players to “contenders”. The Reds are not totally out of it, and they should keep the most of this team together not just this year, but in the years to come as well. People say what’s the big deal about just having a winning season? I think for this team, it is a huge deal. This is a club that hasn’t had a winning season since 2000. In baseball, that’s eons ago. If the Reds are only able to get to a winning season this year, it not only gives confidence to players, but to the fans as well, for 2009 and beyond. It says that the days of salary dumping and making trades just for the sake of making trades for this team are over. It says that this team is in it to win it, and they’ll accept nothing less. And you don’t bring in a manager like Dusty Baker to compete with the Pirates and Astros for who gets last place. You bring in a guy like Baker because you’re serious about winning and nothing less than that is acceptable.By Mr. Baseball
July 24, 2008 10:51 PM | Link to this
With just a week left before the trade deadline, Reds fans are stirring. Who will stay and who will go? Mr. Baseball thinks that the most likely candidate to leave, unfortunately for the wizard, is David Weathers. He has been a solid contributor to the Reds especially last year, and he’s pitching well right now (1.93 ERA over his last 19 games), but he has value to a lot of contending teams. He will be a free agent after this year and an aging one at that. If the Reds can get fair value for him, they should trade. Burton will be coming back, Lincoln is stepping up, and Josh Roenicke might be ready to step into Weathers’ role. Also, the Reds could part with him and still stay in contention for the wild card. Beyond that, Mr. Baseball is hard-pressed to see another obvious trade for the Reds. As the month of July winds down with the Reds playing a soft spot in their schedule, expect them to eclipse the .500 mark, giving them just enough hope to avoid a fire sale, but not enough hope to go after a big name rent-a-player.By Nick
July 24, 2008 9:40 PM | Link to this
As usual, you are right on target. If I were in charge, I would only consider making a trade that would make this team better next year. Trading a starting pitcher that is under contract next year will not do that. Without Arroyo, they go into spring training needing another starter. They have no one they can pencil in to that rotation next year that we can say could adequately replace Arroyo. Hold on to him. I also hold on to my bullpen. The only trade I even consider with this team is Dunn, and that is only if I can get prospects that I would value more than the compensatory draft picks I would receive from losing him to free agency.By Wizard
July 24, 2008 8:36 PM | Link to this
No doubt Hal is correct in his brilliant article, again.I think keeping this team together, will allow the chemistry that seems just about to be forthcoming, to surface.I also think getting rid of a pitcher, who had 33 saves last year—if there is nothing wrong with him physically, is not sound judgment. Weathers has great knowledge,and knows “how” to pitch. He is a fighter on the mound.I like him. I do think he is more efficient when he is utilized more often, as he was last year, when he had 33 saves.What say you Mr.Baseball and Mike-Cinci?By Aaron B.
July 24, 2008 8:12 PM | Link to this
Wait a minute here… I am as giddy as anyone else that the reds have looked respectable in recent weeks and Arroyo is finally bouncing back and earning his salary. But suddenly that makes him untouchable? He is heading towards his back loaded contract years… we should be delighted to dump that salary and let the new guys pick up the slack. He is being paid #2 pitchers money, maybe ace money if you really look how much he will be making the next couple of seasons, and he is untouchable despite pitching terribly for a long stretch of games? When we first got him I think it was a steal and we desperately needed his rubber arm to eat up innings, and yea we still need an innings eater, but is that worth paying him ace money for the next two seasons even though Volquez, Cueto, Harang are certainly all higher on the depth chart than him? Is he that irreplaceable? I do like that he can hit some… I don’t know about the running, I remember him getting slammed at third base in San Diego when he tried to slide head first… but still lets be realistic here is he truly worth the contract? That is what it comes down to in my opinion.By Matt
July 24, 2008 7:53 PM | Link to this
This article by Hal is exactly right!! The Reds finally have a plethora of fine pitching, and they need to keep all of team that they can. And let’s not forget progress IS being made. Where was this team last year? Buried in last place and waayyyy out of it. Where are they at this year right now? 50-53, 4th place, 10 games out. While that’s not great, it’s hardly terrible. This team needs to subtract a few players (Weathers, Patterson to name a couple) but overall this is a good team that will only get better as the years progress, IF ownership and the front office keep it together. Go Reds!!By HT
July 24, 2008 6:55 PM | Link to this
And let’s not forget Bobby Livingston. He was terrific last year. He’ll be back, too. In my opinion, keep Bronson and Dunn is a MUST keep & sign. EE is worth keeping as well and should continue to mature. Kepp and Hairston? No brainers IMO. Freel is expendable. Obviously hang onto Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Brandon & Harrang. We need a solid RF (hopefully right handed) who hustles and a solid #1 catcher rather than two #2 catchers. I hang onto Fogg, pretty much a steal at $1 mil. Spots will open up with the exit and or trades (I hope) of Junior, Alex Gonzalez, Corey, Coffey, Bray, Magic Man, Weathers, Lincoln, Affeldt. Further, I would NOT make Coco an untouchable. He’s not so hot and way overpriced. He just never felt right to me. I’d like to see the Reds keep Valentine and use him more often AND have him as a quality L/R pinch hitter. Also, of course, hang onto Andy Phillips and Hopper. If Hopper is healthy, maybe he’s our CF. Problem is he hasn’t much pop in his bat, but a great leadoff/ bunter/base thief.By Wizard
July 24, 2008 6:45 PM | Link to this
Interesting that the entire team has raised their level of play at this time of the year. I wonder for how long? Is it possible that many are giving them no chance at the playoffs, erroneously?By Calvin
July 24, 2008 6:13 PM | Link to this
Your article is right on point. With all the young arms, and with all the ininngs they have already thrown this year, I don’t see how the Reds can afford to trade any pitching at all. I have read where some have talked about trading Weathers and/or Affeldt, I disagree with that thinking. I think the bullpen with be needed more at the end of the season. I see the Reds staying pat for the most part. I do see them parting ways with Coffey, either when Burton comes back or after the season, he has nothing left to prove at AAA; I think they have given him more than enough chances. I don’t see him being a reliable reliever for the Reds, and the way Baker has been using him,it is pretty plain to me that he doesn’t think so either. Of course, these are only my opinions.By Martha
July 24, 2008 5:42 PM | Link to this
Amen - again, the line that struck me was, “He’s not just a pitcher … he’s a baseball player.” And Arroyo has brought some fun back to the Reds, with the sheer touch of his personality. He obviously loves Cincinnati and the fans love him back, even when they are wincing (and laughing) at his JTM commercials. I hope they keep him. He embodies the spirit of the joy of baseball.By Mike
July 24, 2008 5:42 PM | Link to this
Attention: Mr. J is evaluating as we blog today…the 6 month long evaluations are still cookin..patience!!By RM
July 24, 2008 5:01 PM | Link to this
This article is right on. The Reds finally have a bright future as to starting pitching and we chousl acquire more of it, not less. The Reds Do need right handed hitting and players that can play defense. If anyone wants a big contract from a position player who is making big money, that would be the way to go at this point. The Reds are closer right now than they have been in a long, long, time. 25 million to sign free agents in the off season could go a long, long, wat towards a pennant.By Beard
July 24, 2008 4:45 PM | Link to this
Be careful should be the mantra in all personnel decisions. And yes of course pitching is the most important aspect of the game and the most difficult to develop. Only Walt Jocketty really knows what kind of offers the Reds are getting for Arroyo and Fogg. And only Mr. Jocketty has the power to pull the trigger on any trade. I’m sure he’ll get lots of imput from Reds scouts and minor league guys. But the very bottom line is you must do what is best to help the team become a championship contender as soon as possible. There is some trade out there somewhere that makes anyone worth trading. Anyone. Anything. Unless your name is Babe Ruth or Ted Williams there is probably a better ball player than you and if the team owning that better player wants to pull the trigger you have to let them go. No blockbusters are likely to happen they never are. And even if one does it takes a lot longer to analyze than most people have the patience for. Take for instance the Volquez-Hamilton deal. Can’t even begin to truly assess it for another 3 to 5 years probably. How is that Bray/Majewski/Thompson for Kearns/Lopez deal looking now? Better than I for one initially thought. It shall be an interesting 7 days and the most important in Mr. Jocketty’s short tenure as Reds G.M. so far.By Nick w
July 24, 2008 4:17 PM | Link to this
great article hal..this game is all about what ifs and like hal said you better be careful..what if we do trade bronson and he ends the year just as hot as he is now and then next year is still good and the reds look dumb but what if we do trade him get a young prospect for him and he starts going back to the way he was at the beginning of this year and starts off bad for that team next year and the player we get is up and playing next year then we look smart..what if we don’t trade him he finishs this year great and comes up next year as one of our best pitchers and helps turn the corner then we look smart but what if we don’t trade him he starts doing bad at the end and then next year he starts off bad then we look dumb what if we trade him and try our luck with the youngsters and then become the youngest and one the best starting rotations then we look smart..what if we trade him and try the young pitchers and one or two them arn’t ready and they spend another year in AAA and we don’t have a 4th or 5th starter..so like i said earlier today i am glad i get to write about this and not have to make the choice on what to do..By Harry the Horse
July 24, 2008 3:50 PM | Link to this
When someone brings up the Paul O’Neill trade, I wonder will the Reds make the same mistake with Adam Dunn.. O’neill received the same critcism that Dunn gets from Reds fans today. And he is BIG Dunn. Maybe that’s why Lou wants Dunn!!By Jim Olsen
July 24, 2008 3:21 PM | Link to this
I loved the words - “He isn’t just a pitcher, … He is a baseball player. He can bunt, field his position, run the bases …” Some of the Redd’s position players don’t satisfy those words.By Scotty J in WV
July 24, 2008 3:10 PM | Link to this
Fantastic words, Mr. McCoy!! From your lips (or fingers in this case) to Mr. Jocketty’s and Mr. Castellini’s ears. The Reds have been pitching poor for far too long, and now that there’s an abundance of young arms, there’s absolutely no reason to trade any of ‘em off. While their at it, they need to work out a contract for young Mr. Dunn. This team’s gettin’ get real good, real fast and he needs to be on it. Even though the record’s not showing it, this team’s been a lot of fun to watch most of the time. They are going to be more fun next year and win quite a few more games. Look out for this bunch…By Scotty J in WV
July 24, 2008 3:10 PM | Link to this
Fantastic words, Mr. McCoy!! From your lips (or fingers in this case) to Mr. Jocketty’s and Mr. Castellini’s ears. The Reds have been pitching poor for far too long, and now that there’s an abundance of young arms, there’s absolutely no reason to trade any of ‘em off. While their at it, they need to work out a contract for young Mr. Dunn. This team’s gettin’ get real good, real fast and he needs to be on it. Even though the record’s not showing it, this team’s been a lot of fun to watch most of the time. They are going to be more fun next year and win quite a few more games. Look out for this bunch…By bigdoc
July 24, 2008 2:28 PM | Link to this
Good advice, Hal! Shows that even ‘Sweet Lou’ wasn’t perfect! BTW, Dunn is about the same age as O’Neill was when the Reds sent him away—and ‘Big O’Neil-My A**’ morphed into the Bronx’s beloved ‘PAUL-O-NE-ILL!’ And if there’s acommodity almost as rare as starting pitchers—genuine sluggers. Like Hal says, ‘Be careful!’