Groundhog Day thaw expected this week

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By Bill Felker 7:42 PM Saturday, January 28, 2012

Poor Will’s Clark County Almanack

Opening a barn door for the sheep standing out in a cold rain, or throwing a few grains of corn to the chickens are small things, but these little things begin to add up in you, and you begin to understand that you’re important. You may not be important like people who do great things that you read about in the newspaper, but you begin to feel that you’re important to the life around you.

Wendell Berry, Renewing Husbandry

Lunar phase and lore

The Singing Cardinal Moon, entering its second quarter on Jan. 30, waxes throughout the first week of February, bringing more cardinals into song and becoming completely full at 4:54 p.m. on the 7th. Rising in the afternoon or evening and setting in the morning, this moon moves overhead in the middle of the night. Waxing through Taurus on Feb. 1 and 2, and then through Cancer on the 4th to the 6th, the moon this week offers superb conditions for seeding flowers and for vegetables that will produce their fruit above the ground.

Lunar conditions favor fishing (but discourage dieting) in the middle of the night and at the second-most-powerful lunar time, midday, especially as the barometer falls in advance of the Feb. 3 and Feb. 6 cold fronts.

Weather patterns

The first two days of February often bring the Groundhog Day thaw — a brief time of mild temperatures. Beginning on the 3rd, however, conditions typically become chillier. The likelihood of below-zero temperatures becomes the greatest of the entire winter, and the chances for highs below freezing remains steady at 60 percent. If strong storms occur this month, they will be most likely to strike on or around the following dates: Feb. 2-4, 6-9, 14-18 and 24-25. Full moon on Feb. 7 and new moon on Feb. 14 are likely to increase the intensity of the weather systems.

The sun

By the time the Groundhog Day Thaw is over  (Feb. 3 or 4), the sun will have climbed past a declination of 16 degrees, more than 30 percent of the way to spring equinox.

Zeitgebers

Zeitgebers for this week include the mating cries of cardinals half an hour before sun-up, the first mourning dove songs (just after the cardinals), the bell-calls of the blue jays later in the day, and the arrival of pollen of mountain cedar, acacia, smooth alder, bald cypress, American elm, red maple, white poplar, black willow and bluegrass from the South, carried on the winds of the Groundhog Day Thaw.

Daybook

Jan. 29: Livestock and people may feed more and are more active as the barometer is falling one to three days before the weather systems that arrive near the following dates: Feb. 3, 6, 11, 15, 20, 24.

Jan. 30: The Groundhog Day Thaw often begins today or tomorrow and lasts until about Feb. 3. The moon’s position in Taurus through Feb. 1 augers well for indoor seeding throughout the North. In the wetlands, hemlock has grown about half a foot tall. Sometimes a few peony spears and bleeding heart stalks are visible in the garden.

Jan. 31: In northern Mexico, monarch butterflies are moving toward the Texas border. They will reach the Gulf coast in small groups during mid to late March, and their offspring will find Clark County in May. In Florida, fireflies begin their season, four months ahead of their relatives in Springfield

Feb. 1: Be prepared for possible drought: make sure your soil has sufficient potassium and phosphorus.

Feb. 2: Today is Groundhog Day. Although the tradition about the groundhog seeing its shadow began in the Northeast, most groundhogs stay in their dens this early in February throughout the northern half of the country; they do, however, become active during January and February in the South.

Feb. 3: Throughout the Miami Valley, there is one hour more daylight than on Dec. 26.

Feb. 4: Thunderstorms frequently arrive with the cold wave that breaks the Groundhog Day Thaw.

Notebook

It’s almost Early Spring: Time to be paying attention, time to be getting ready.

When you hear mourning doves singing before dawn, then organize all your buckets for tapping maple syrup.

When you hear red-winged blackbirds, then the maple sap should already be running.

When aconites bloom, then spread fertilizer in the field and garden so that it can work its way into the ground before planting.

When the first daffodil foliage is two inches tall, then go to the wetlands to find skunk cabbage in bloom.

When you see sparrows courting, then cut branches of forsythia and silver maples for forcing indoors.

When pussy willows begin to emerge outside, then it is time to spray fruit trees with dormant oil.

When the first knuckles of rhubarb emerge from the ground, then it’s time to plant your onion sets and seed your cold frames with spinach, radishes and lettuce.

When strawberry plants have new foliage, then wildflower season has begun in the Southwest and bald eagles are laying their eggs in Yellowstone.

When you see tulip foliage emerging from the ground, then horned owlets hatch in the woods.

When you see ducks looking for nesting sites, then you know that ambystoma salamanders will be mating at night in the slime.

Bill Felker has been watching local weather and writing almanacks since 1984. Visit his website at poorwillsalmanack.com.

Bill Felker

Poor Will’s Clark County Almanack

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