Earth’s atmosphere pulses, breathes almost predictably

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By Bill Felker, Contributing writer 9:36 PM Saturday, January 14, 2012

The cold is our ancient companion; prehistoric people developed their art and technology on the edge of ice-age glaciers. To return back indoors after exposure to the bitter, inimical, implacable cold is to experience gratitude for the shelters of civilization, the islands of warmth that life creates.

John Updike

Lunar phase and lore

The Camel Back Cricket Moon wanes until it becomes the Singing Cardinal Moon on Jan. 23 at 2:39 a.m. New moon will increase the likelihood of strong storms as the January Thaw period comes to a close. The weak moon at the end of the month, however, is expected to improve the chances for a mild Groundhog Day Thaw (Jan. 30-Feb. 3). The moon’s position in Capricorn on the 20-22 is expected to be ideal for the seeding of bedding plants.

Weather patterns

After the 15th, Miami Valley statistics show a warming trend that brings a 35 percent chance for a high above freezing on the 16th, and a 40 percent chance on the 20th. The possibility of mild weather and the “January Thaw” is enhanced by the approach of the fourth cold front of the month. The low-pressure trough leading that front often brings in warm southerly winds. On the other hand, days when the temperature does not rise above zero occur more often this week than in any other, and morning lows below zero occur more in the third week of January than in any other time of the year. Most of the days this week carry about a 50 percent chance for rain or snow.

Zeitgebers

Zeitgebers include the emergence of flies in your house (perhaps brought in on a plant last fall), the appearance of small, tan moths on mild afternoons, crayfish hunting the swamps when the sun warms the wetlands, juncos beginning to flock in advance of their migration north, and crows starting to move up from the South. Cardinals sing before dawn as the Singing Cardinal Moon waxes.

Daybook

Jan. 15: Tomorrow’s weak moon (entering its fourth quarter) favors working with livestock. When you are outside, re-evaluate your hay supply for nutrient levels. Unless you know the quality of your forage, it is difficult to make sound management decisions concerning the amount of supplements to provide your animals. And — besides genes — nutrients are the most important part of developing your herd or flock.

Jan. 16: On the 16th of January, the day is 20 minutes longer than it was at solstice, having taken a little over three weeks to gain so much time. In just 11 more days, on the 27th of January, the day’s length will be 40 minutes longer than its solstice length, the advance of spring twice as rapid as during the first weeks of the month.

Jan. 17: Throughout the nation, florists and grocery stores are carrying spring daffodils and tulips, either potted or as cut flowers. In Clark County, perennials should be covered with extra mulch if they are sprouting early.

Jan. 18: Bedding plant season is underway throughout the entire country.

Jan. 19: The January Thaw period begins today and lasts through the 25th. Expect changeable weather conditions, increased precipitation, and then severe cold as thaw comes to a close. The approach of the strong new moon could impact animal behavior and increase odds for birthing during the thaw period

Jan. 20: After the sun enters Aquarius (today), average temperatures start coming up just a little. They climb slowly throughout Late Winter, culminating in a decided weather shift no later than Feb. 18.

Jan. 21: On the long winter evenings, take time to check warm-weather bulbs you brought indoors. Clean and dry them carefully if mold has started to form.

The pulse of the earth

Major high-pressure systems cross the United States an average of once every five to six days, and 60 to 65 systems pass through Clark County in a year. Fronts move more quickly in the colder months; October through March can bring up to eight waves of high pressure every 30 days.

This regular pulse that characterizes the planet’s atmosphere was first recorded in detail by 16th century almanackers. It still forms the basis for annual predictions in today’s commercial almanacs, and can be used by anyone who keeps a weather journal to gauge the likelihood for rain or sun, heat or cold on any given day.

Within the rhythm of the earth’s breath across the countryside, there are seasonal shifts that occur at certain predictable intervals. The fifth front of the year, for example, is often followed by pleasant weather, the January thaw. The last high-pressure bank of January is also relatively mild, bringing a warm-up near Groundhog Day. Early spring, when pussy willows start pushing out and snowdrops bloom, arrives in Clark County after the eleventh cold front of the year near the 15th of February.

Every season turns on a specific weather milestone that develops at a specific time and is predictable within a couple of days. Changes in plants, animals and even people keep pace with those events and can be measured by them. The weather year is consequently a template for all the other cycles that take place around us. It is a dynamic metronome, a resource of cadence and balance.

Bill Felker has been watching local weather and writing almanacks since 1984. Visit his website at poorwillsalmanack.com.

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