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Gap closing between Kasich and Strickland, latest poll shows

The race has tightened since last month’s survey of likely voters in the November election.

Why opinion polls can have different results

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By William Hershey, Columbus Bureau Updated 2:49 PM Sunday, October 24, 2010

COLUMBUS — Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland and Republican John Kasich are in a neck-and-neck scramble in the governor’s race heading into the final week of campaigning, according to a new Dayton Daily News/Ohio Newspaper poll.

Their support is roughly even among likely voters: Kasich,  49 percent; Strickland, 47 percent, with 5 percent undecided or backing another candidate.

The results are within the poll’s 3.3 percent margin of error and show a slight tightening of the race since the most recent Ohio Newspaper Poll was released Sept. 27. In that poll, Kasich led by four percentage points.

The Daily News and the seven other largest newspapers in Ohio commissioned the polls to examine voter attitudes in the final weeks of an election widely seen as critical to Ohio’s future.

With the race so close, the winner will be determined by which side does a better job of getting out the vote, said Eric Rademacher, co-director of the University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research, which did the poll for the newspapers. And on the enthusiasm quotient, he said, Kasich appears to have an edge.

“It’s a close race, but the dynamics, especially the advantage the Republicans have in turnout, still favor Kasich,” said Rademacher.

In the poll, 53 percent of Strickland backers said they might change their minds before Nov. 2, while 47 percent of Kasich supporters said they might switch.

Poll respondent Gwen Frisby, 29, of Sidney, is one of those who said she could change her mind. But said she will likely vote for Strickland.

“I think he’s done as well as could be expected right now,” said Frisby, a stay-at-home mom with three children and another one on the way.

Frisby doesn’t like Republican TV ads blaming Strickland for the economic downturn. “I don’t think this is his fault,” she said. “I think it’s a lot of people’s fault.”

Jay Merrick, 76, of Huber Heights, a retiree, is not one of those wavering. He is firmly behind Kasich.

“He’s not Ted Strickland,” explained Merrick, who served 20 years in the Air Force and then 25 years as a civilian employee. “I just don’t like Strickland. I don’t like anything the Democrats are doing.”

In contrast to the tight governor’s race, the U.S. Senate race appears to be a blowout, with Republican Rob Portman, the former Cincinnati-area congressman who was budget director and U.S. trade representative under President George W. Bush, leading Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, 58-39 percent. Portman led in the earlier poll 55-40 percent.

About the poll

The Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati has done polling for the Ohio Newspaper Organization since September 2008. That year, the final Dayton Daily News/Ohio Newspaper Poll showed Barack Obama with a 3-point lead over John McCain among likely voters in Ohio. He won by about 4.5 percent.

In 2009, the group’s polling showed the casino ballot issue, despite a history of failed attempts, would pass handily. It did.

The institute also conducts the Ohio Poll, which accurately projected the winner in 37 out of 37 statewide races between 1994 and 2008, according to Eric Rademacher, the institute’s co-director.

Today’s poll is the third of three this year on the governor’s race. In January, the Dayton Daily News/Ohio Newspaper Poll found that Republican John Kasich led incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland by six points. In September, Kasich led by four points, according to the poll. In the current poll, the last before the Nov. 2, election, the race is even tighter, with Kasich at 49 percent and Strickland at 47. Because the result is within the poll’s margin of error, pollsters advise against declaring that one candidate is ahead of the other.

The poll was conducted between Oct. 14 and Oct. 18, 2010. A random sample of 889 likely voters from throughout the state was interviewed by landline telephone and cellular telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.3 percent.

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