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Updated: 11:17 a.m. Saturday, Feb. 11, 2012 | Posted: 11:16 a.m. Saturday, Feb. 11, 2012
By Thomas Gnau
Staff Writer
Consumers continue to eye both new and used cars and trucks — and demand is strong for both.
The National Automobile Dealers Association expects stronger demand and suppressed supply to keep used car prices rising in 2012.
The NADA Used Car Guide recently said used vehicle prices will increase by 1.8 percent by the end of the year, peaking in the spring. That’s slightly slower than the price rise for used vehicles last year, which was 3 percent, the association said.
New car buyers, meanwhile, will benefit from higher trade-in values for their used vehicles, NADA said.
Larry Dixon, a NADA senior automotive analyst, sees a stronger economy as the foundation for rising demand and shrinking supply.
“You have improving economic conditions, especially when it’s from the depth of where we were,” Dixon said.
Simply put: Prospective buyers for both new and used cars are returning to the market.
The total number of used vehicles sold in the Dayton market in 2011 was 70,935, about 6 percent more than the 67,004 used vehicles sold in 2010, according to AutoView Online, a web site which tracks and gathers title data on vehicle sales.
New car sales in the Dayton market grew 17.5 percent in 2011 over 2010, according to Auto View Online, from 35,480 to 41,691 new vehicles.
Dave Arbogast, owner of a Buick-GMC dealership in Troy, is enjoying the strength of both markets. He said he sold 1,948 used vehicles in 2011, up 20 percent from 2010, so he’s not disappointed when a customer opts for used rather than new.
Since General Motors ended the Pontiac nameplate in 2009, Arbogast has found that he needed to “refocus” on used cars. Pontiac at one time was 54 percent of his business, although Buick and GMC are doing well these days, Arbogast said.
Arbogast sees buyers keeping cars longer, offering trade-ins with 200,000 to 300,000 miles on the odometer, and looking for newer used cars. And he believes consumers are keenly aware of the drastic depreciation new cars suffer as they are driven off dealer lots.
But the supply of those newer used cars is limited — so their prices are higher.
“It’s becoming tougher and tougher to find that quality used car that just a few years ago was easy to find,” Arbogast said.
Is there a contradiction in rising demand for both new and used vehicles?
“Intuitively, it might sound like it,” said Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends and insights for auto industry data provider TrueCar.com. “But that’s the trend we’ve seen in the last year, at least. And we expect that trend to continue.”
It boils down to rising demand at a time of lower inventory levels. That leads to higher prices, Toprak said.
“It’s just simple economics,” he said.
The auto industry in North America produced fewer vehicles during the recent recession, and compared to the 2006-07 level of about 16 million vehicles, a recovering industry is still producing a lower number of vehicles, Toprak said.
In 2009, the depth of the recession, automakers sold 10.8 million vehicles. The U.S. industry is growing from there, but at a measured pace. Ford Motor Co. recently said it expects industry sales to be 13.5 million to 14.5 million nationally this year, while General Motors Co. has said it expects national sales in a similar range of 13.5 million to 14 million vehicles.
It can be more difficult for motorists to find that newer used vehicle they want — a car or truck that’s only one- to five years old, Toprak said. In addition, fewer cars are being leased, so fewer leased cars are being returned, further cutting the inventory of available used vehicles, Toprak and Dixon said.
Economic duress will harm the markets for both new and used cars, but a rising economic tide will lift both markets, Dixon said.
If prices for used vehicles rise too far too fast, that will send consumers back to new cars, Dixon said, adding that he doesn’t think that will happen.
Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2390 or tgnau@DaytonDailyNews.com.
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