DAYTON — Ohio will outperform the rest of the nation, on average, during the all-important holiday sales season, according to the first holiday sales forecast for the state from the University of Cincinnati’s Economics Center.

The forecast, released Monday by The Ohio Council of Retail Merchants, predicts retail sales in Ohio for the months of November and December will climb 2.55 percent from $877 million in 2009. That compares to a projected 2.49 percent increase nationwide.

The Ohio forecast would represent an increase of more than $20 million in holiday spending and the best year for Ohio retailers since 2007, according to the report.

“Ohio holiday spending has not been studied to this point,” added Jeff Rexhausen, the Economics Center’s research project manager.

The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest trade association, is predicting a 2.3 percent increase in sales over last year, while the International Council of Shopping Centers recently raised its forecast for growth to a range of 3 percent to 3.5 percent.

Rexhausen attributed the hopeful projections to low inflation, recent gains in employment and improved consumer confidence as the economy continues to rebound.