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Experts: Economy likely to rebound from slow 1st quarter


MARTIN CRUTSINGER

AP Economics Writer

Expect a dreary report Wednesday when the government issues its first estimate of how fast the U.S. economy grew in the January-March quarter. Brutal weather kept consumers and businesses in hibernation for much of the winter and likely slowed growth to a scant annual pace of just 1.1 percent.

Yet thanks to a bounce-back in consumer spending, business investment and job growth, analysts foresee a strengthening economy through the rest of the year.

In fact, many say 2014 will be the year the recovery from the Great Recession finally achieves the robust growth that’s needed to accelerate hiring and reduce still-high unemployment.

Most analysts think annual economic growth has rebounded to around 3 percent in the current April-June quarter and will remain roughly that strong through the second half of the year.

If that proves accurate, the economy will have produced the fastest annual expansion in the gross domestic product, the broadest gauge of the economy’s health, in nine years. The last time growth was so strong was in 2005, when GDP grew 3.4 percent, two years before the nation fell into the worst recession since the 1930s.

A group of economists surveyed this month by The Associated Press said they expect unemployment to fall to 6.2 percent by the end of this year from 6.7 percent in March.

One reason for the optimism is that a drag on growth last year from higher taxes and deep federal spending cuts has been diminishing. A congressional budget truce has also lifted any imminent threat of another government shutdown. As a result, businesses may find it easier to commit to investments to modernize and expand production facilities and boost hiring.

State and local governments, which have benefited from a rebound in tax revenue, are hiring again as well.

A survey by the private Conference Board released Tuesday found that while U.S. consumer confidence dipped this month, many people foresee a strengthening economy in the months ahead.

Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors, said he expects job growth to average above 200,000 a month for the rest of the year — starting with the April jobs report, which will be released Friday.


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