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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Shuck Projects Wayne To Host Playoffs
From the latest Shuck’s Projections, here are your likely Division I, Region 4 playoff teams: Colerain (first with 32.10 points and a 9-1 record), Northmont (second with 30.35 and a 9-1 record), Elder (third with 28.92 and a 9-1 record), Wayne (fourth with 27.58 and a 7-3 record), Woodward (fifth with 24.99 and a 10-0 record), Centerville (sixth with 24.40 and a 7-3 record), Fairmont (seventh with 24.05 with a 7-3 record) and St. Xavier (eighth at 22.01 and a 5-5 record).
Shuck said expect a second opening playoff game in Dayton. “Although not mathematically in, Wayne could be the second Dayton area team to host a first round game. They finish at home against a Springfield team that beat Centerville earlier in the season and thumped Beavercreek last week. It may not be easy for the Warriors, but a loss only drops them to the mid-24 range. That number should be good enough.”
Shuck said “Centerville plays at Fairmont. I’ve given the win to the Elks, and they need it. A loss drops them below 20, which isn’t enough to qualify. On the Faimront side, they are projected with the loss so 24 is a low point for them. A win pushes their total over 28 and probably earns them a home game.”
Shuck on Dunbar in Region 8, D-II: “Dunbar has the inside edge 16.9 points with a projected 8-2 record), but there are possibilities for Little Miami. Even with a Dunbar win, they will have to do some scoreboard watching. With a Dunbar win, Little Miami is projected just .5 behind, provided they beat Amelia. Second level games become more of a focus when the margin is this small. The difference could widen with a couple wins by Dunbar defeated opponents that are expected to lose.”
In Region 12, D-III — Shuck has Franklin replacing Indian Hill if the Wildcats defeat Oakwood.
Region 16, D-IV - Clinton Massie and Alter are locks. Massie is projected at fifth, but a win over Jonathan Alder would move them up and keep them at home in round one. Alter should finish sixth.
With just one week remaining in the regular season, Ohio has 41 undefeated teams, including West Liberty Salem and Mechanicsburg. They put their perfect records on line against each other Friday night.
Shuck, the Harbin computer guru, has been doing this longer than most analysts with over two decades of experience.
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