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Home > Blogs > High School Huddle > Archives > 2008 > October > 07 > Entry

Elks Projected As Tops In Harbin’s Region 4

By Ron Jackson | Tuesday, October 7, 2008, 10:43 AM

In his latest newsletter (Shuck’s Projections) Harbin computer guru Steve Shuck projects Centerville No. 1 in Division I Region 4 with an 8-2 record. On the strength of its stunning win over nationally-ranked Colerain, Middletown is fifth and Fairmont eighth at 7-3. The resurgent Firebirds jumped over several teams with its win over Wayne. Northmont (8-2) and Wayne (6-4) are on the bubble in ninth and tenth.

Shuck on the Elks, the new leader: “They have a three-point lead, but many of their points have not been earned. Their last three opponents, Northmont, Wayne and Fairmont, are all in the list of 14 that hope to finish in the top eight. Centerville needs to win at least two.”

Here are the numbers: Centerville (32.7), Colerain (29.6), Elder (29.5), Harrison (27.0), Middletown (26.1), Woodward (25.8), Moeller (25.3) and Fairmont 24.6).

Shuck is one of the first to make computerized projections, starting two decades ago.

Shuck on Fairmont: “Fairmont clings to eighth by .6. That number includes two more losses. Winning two of the last three raises the final number to over 29, which would certainly be enough.”

On Wayne: “A week ago Wayne was projected to finish at 8-2. That could still happen but they’ll have to do it without their No. 1 quarterback. With that in mind and the Warriors struggling to score, projection changes were made. One change was to give Beavercreek a win over Wayne this week. A win over the Beavers could turn things around for Wayne.”

On Northmont: “They straddle the fence. The only way to raise their number significantly would be to upset the Region 4 leader Centerville. If they can’t pull off that upset, which isn’t impossible, the Thunderbolts need to take care of business and hope the numbers fall their way.”

Shuck projects Dunbar as eighth in D-II Region 8. Valley View appears headed to another playoff in Region 12 while Clinton Massie and Alter figure to make it in Region 16.

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